Stats Corner: Competitive Balance For Basketball, Soccer And Hockey

Ever wonder how what the percentage of countries who win international tournaments is relative to the number of members in a particular federation?

Though not.

Too bad. I’m still gonna write about it.

Specifically, I was interested in how many countries have actually won a tournament or (where applicable) earned a medal or reached as far as  the semis (in the case of World Cup soccer).  I selected basketball, hockey and soccer because those sports have high profile and wildly popular international tournaments. Continental tournaments were not included and only men’s senior teams were considered. I added the Olympics because most members of a federation usually participate in the Olympics. Unless they’ve gone rogue under the dictatorship of a villain bent on world domination and are hence a menace to the international system (and even then), they’re going to the Olympics.

Here we go:

FIBA: 213

Olympics:  15 countries (7%) have won a medal but only four (2%) have hogged the gold medal.

World Championships: 13 (6%) nations have won a medal and seven (3%) have won the tournament outright.

Overlap where countries have won both: 7 . For both competitions 21 countries (10%) have won medals – only seven (3%) have won. Just four (USA, Yugloslavia, Argentina and Soviet Union) have won both. Or  if you prefer, just 10% of the members have won a medal. Only 3% have won one of the tournaments and 1% both.

It’s hard to win in basketball!

FIFA: 208

World Cup: 7 countries (3%) won the title. 11 (5%) reached finals while 24 (12%) hit the top four.

Olympics: 26 (13%) countries have won a medal; 16 (8%) of which won gold – including Canada!

Don’t forget the overlap: 19 different countries (9%) have won a gold and World Cup. 36 (17%) countries have reached the semis or earned a medal.

It’s hard to win in soccer!

IIHF: 64

Olympics: Six countries struck gold (9%) and 10 (16%) have been medalists.

World Championships: 8 (13%) have been golden and 11 (17%) winning a medal of some colour.

Overlap – 8 gold; 11 medals

I didn’t add the WJHC and World/Canada Cup because it wouldn’t have impacted the numbers much. It’s the same circle of countries who win in hockey with (seemingly) little chance for others to ever win. The hockey powers being: Canada, United States, Russia, Sweden, Czech Republic, Finland and Slovakia; with Switzerland winning the odd bronze here and there.

Nonetheless, you know what’s coming; it’s hard to win in hockey!

Overall, naturally, hockey has the smallest number of members whereas basketball (surprised?) has the highest. Both FIBA and FIFA have more members than the UN which currently stands at 192.

In each case, the number of championship teams is four to seven with the notable exception of Olympic soccer where 16 countries have won gold.

So next time you’re team doesn’t win, don’t be too hard on them. It’s hard to win anything in sports.


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