I heard a conversation about the World Cup on ESPN radio earlier today. It was mostly centered around the U.S. team and their chances against England, Slovenia and Algeria but eventually led to the inevitable “who do you think” will win question. The guest, who made salient points I could not really disagree with, though unsure finally settled on Brazil – who doesn’t?
The host harmlessly replied, “old reliable” Brazil.
The guest then later added Germany for their “mental strength,” the Netherlands, Italy, Spain and I believe Argentina if my memory serves me loyally.
In any event, “old reliable” and “mental strength” descriptions attached to Brazil and Germany got me thinking. First of all, it’s interesting how Italy tends to get overlooked for their own mental strength. If anyone has noticed, very few nations can win trench warfare type of soccer like the Italians; just like their German rivals. You can literally outplay either side for 90 minutes and just when you think you have a win or tie in the bag, that’s when they always seemingly strike.
The other thing was the reliability factor. How to define it? I’ll just keep it simple and use straightforward math as opposed to all the interesting freakanomics about population and resources and all that.
Let’s focus on Brazil, Germany, Italy and Argentina since they’ve reached the finals at least four times. The following considers all World Cups until 2006.
Brazil: 18 finals. Of those they won five and reached the finals seven times. They further reached the finals 1o times and the quarter-finals 15.
Germany: 16 finals. Three titles and seven finals. 11 semis and 15 quarters.
Italy: 16 finals. Four titles and six finals. Eight semis and 10 quarters.
Argentina: 14 finals. Two titles. Four finals. Four semis and eight quarters.
Let’s compute.
Brazil has a 28% winning ratio (5/18) when it comes to triumphs.
Italy is next clocking in at 25% (4/16).
Germany stands in third with 19% (3/16).
Argentina is 4th at 14% (2/14)
Based on this alone, Brazil certainly is reliable with Italy close on its heels.
Ok. Finals:
Germany has reached the finals 44% of the ime (7/16).
Brazil has been in the finals 39% of the time (7/18).
Italy 33% of the time (6/16).
Argentina last again at 28% (4/14).
Both Germany and Italy are looking pretty reliable alongside Brazil.
And the semis:
Germany had made it to the semis a remarkable 69% of the time (11/16)
Brazil: Fans have witnessed a Brazilian side in the semis 56% of the time (10/18).
Italy: Not to shabby at 50% (8/16).
Argentina: 29% is their semi-finals ratio.
Finally, the quarters. Again, the natural progression sees the percentages rise:
Germany: 94% (15/16).
Brazil: 83% (15/18).
Italy: 63% (10/16).
Argentina: 57% (8/14).
With the notable exception of the titles where Brazil and Italy lead, for the finals, semis and quarters balance, Germany leads Brazil with Italy a consistent 3rd and Argentina 4th. Deciding who is more reliable is a bit of a nit-picking game but it’s hard judging by the raw numbers alone, not to give the nod to Germany. However, their three titles to Italy’s four and Brazil’s five does hurt their case. At the end of the day, it’s the victory that matters.
Nonetheless, Germany’s consistency is extremely impressive. Already, the other three countries on the list have posted great results but Germany has an extra little umph to their tradition of excellence.
On a side note, one country I’d monitor is France. At 12 World Cups, the numbers don’t stack up with the Big Four but another good performance in South Africa and they could make a case for a Big Five.
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One thing I always ignore at the World Cup is the player awards and 2006 did nothing to earn my attention. In fact, it repelled me further. The nuttiness of naming Lukas Podolski as the best young player award and the outrageous determination that Zinedine Zidane was somehow the tournament’s best player only makes a mockery of FIFA’s decision. Worse, they didn’t even seem to bother to adhere to their own criteria.
Like any awards ceremonies, I’m not big on them.
