One comment that caught my eye this past World Cup was the theory that Italy isn’t as consistent as Germany because the Azzurri seem to lose to “smaller” teams on a more regular basis. I’m sure there’s more to it than just that but I decided to play with this notion.
What I did, simplistically, was take the top soccer nations in history according to ELO rankings - Brazil, Italy, Germany, Argentina, Holland, France, England, Spain and Uruguay. I took their all-times records and matched them against their records against “non-ranked” teams of a particular decade at the World Cup. For example, ELO ranks the top 20 sides per decade. If a team is in the list, they’re not considered to be non-ranked or “small.” So if, say, Germany lost to Mexico in the 1950s and Mexico wasn’t ranked, then that loss was tabulated as Germany losing to a small team.
I did this for every record matching it to the ELO rankings per decade. It’s not perfect, but so aren’t you. Fifa doesn’t do it and all we’re left with is ELO.
Notes: Another thing I took the liberty of doing is counting a shoot-out as a win or loss and not a draw. For me, it’s a true reflection. After all, if we can determine a champion by it then it’s good enough to be a win. Simple. Also, 2010 was not considered because the 2010s are just starting. If I time at a later date, I’ll refine this list.
Ok. Here we go:
Top teams against non-ranked teams by winning percentage:
1) Brazil – 92 WC games – 25 against non-ranked games: 23-0-2: .920
2) Holland – 36 – 13 anrt; 9-2-2: .870
3) Germany – 92 – 34 anrt; 25-6-3: .823
4) Argentina – 65 – 24 anrt; 19-1-4: .813
5) Spain 49- 22 anrt; 16-3-3: .795
6) France 51 – 17 anrt; 12-3-2: .794
7) Italy 77 – 31 anrt; 20-7-4; .758
England 55 – 18 anrt 11-5-2: .750
9) Uruguay 35 – 17 anrt 6-5-6: .500
For fun I decided to do the opposite and see how these teams did against RANKED sides:
1) Brazil .724
2) Germany .647
3) Italy .641
4) Argentina .512
5) England .500
6) Uruguay .500
7) France .485
Holland .478
9) Spain .370
So much to digest. No really. I just had a salad with peanut sauce. Dee-lish. About the stats.
Brazil and Germany are indeed consistent but maybe there’s some truth to Italy – relative to my simple criteria sample anyway – being better against quality sides. In the first part, though their winning percentage is high, it’s only good for 7th spot ahead of England and Uruguay. But where the competition stiffens, they rise to 3rd in the second list. So far the Big Four (Brazil, Germany, Italy, Argentina) are ‘acting” like the Big four.
Now consider the drop (against non-ranked teams to ranked teams) in total points between bagel bites:
1) Spain 425
2) Holland 392
3) France 309
4) Argentina 301
5) England 250
6) Brazil 196
7) Germany 176
Italy 117
9) Uruguay — (no change)
