By RJ
I went 9-5 last week R. That puts me at 65-38 for the season.
Here are my picks for the NFL’s Week Eight:
Sunday, October 28, 2007
Cleveland (3-3) at Saint Louis (0-7) – 1:00 pm (Sheridan’s Line – Browns by 3)
Cleveland had a bye last week. (One could argue they have a bye this week as well…) The Browns have shown a surprising ability to put a lot of points up on the board. The Derek Anderson to Braylon Edwards combination has been impressive. And Jamal Lewis is averaging five yards per carry. Unfortunately, they’ve given up 183 points through six games, an average of 30.5 points per game. In fact, their defense is giving up an average of 413 yards per game, dead last in the NFL. Saint Louis lost badly at Seattle last week. They’ve managed a total of just nine points in their last two games. The only team in the league that has scored fewer points than the Rams is division-rival San Francisco, but that’s only by a single point – and unlike Saint Louis, the 49ers have already had their bye week. At 0-7, this is their worst start in franchise history (which dates back to 1937). And they lost yet another offensive lineman this week, when they released Claude Terrell after he was arrested for trying out a new pancake blocking technique on his wife.
RJ’s Pick – CLEVELAND BY 6
Detroit (4-2) at Chicago (3-4) – 1:00 pm (Sheridan’s Line – Bears by 4½)
Detroit beat Tampa Bay last week. They are the only team in the league with a record of 4-2 or better that has a negative point differential. That’s because all four of their wins have been in close games, while both of their losses have been absolute blowouts. Their defense has allowed an average of 269.3 passing yards per game, which is the third-most in the league. The Lions re-signed RB Aveion Cason this week in an apparent effort to improve their sub-par running game, which is kind of like trying to alleviate a migraine by bashing your head against a wall. The Bears beat the Eagles last week, 19-16. Another win this week would put them at .500 midway through the season, which in the NFC is almost like clinching a playoff spot. Brian Griese’s quarterback rating is nearly double Rex Grossman’s, and Griese has eight times as many touchdowns with the same number of INTs as Grossman. That being said, Griese is still quite average for an NFL quarterback, and the Bears have no running game to speak of. Also, their defense ain’t what it used to be. And they’re just 1-2 at home. And I understand Mike Ditka no longer coaches there.
RJ’s Pick – DETROIT BY 2
Indianapolis (6-0) at Carolina (4-2) – 1:00 pm (Sheridan’s Line – Colts by 6½)
The Colts beat the Jaguars on MFN last week to remain undefeated. Indianapolis has given up the fourth-fewest points in the NFL. They’ve already beaten all three of their division rivals on the road, and this is a team that hasn’t lost a regular season home game since 2005…so you may as well just award them the AFC South division title right now. Carolina had a bye last week. They are 4-0 on the road this season, but 0-2 at home. It’s uncertain who will be their starting quarterback this week, David Carr or Vinny Testaverde. It’s also unknown who will be their starting running back, DeShaun Foster or DeAngelo Williams. Just about the only thing that is known with any certainty is that the Panthers will lose.
RJ’s Pick – INDIANAPOLIS BY 10
New York Giants (5-2) at Miami (0-7) [in London] – 1:00 pm (Sheridan’s Line – Giants by 9)
The Giants won their fifth game in a row last week, 33-15 over San Francisco. WR Plaxico Burress continues to miss practice with his sprained ankle, even though he still starts every game. It’s become pretty obvious that this “sprain” is never going to be “healed” completely, as it provides him with a built-in excuse to keep missing practice. (Of course, the way he’s been playing, maybe this whole “practice” thing is over-rated…) After giving up 80 points in their first two games, the Giants have given up just 69 points over the last five. (Also, they sacked Donovan McNabb twelve f**king times back in Week Four.) The Dolphins got blown out last week by New England. (Shocking stuff, am I right?) Then to add injury to insult, their last remaining good player, RB Ronnie Brown, blew out his knee and is finished for the season. Miami has given up a league-worst 231 points through seven games, and they’ve given up over 40 points in each of their last two. At 0-7, this is the worst start in franchise history. It is arguably the worst start in any franchise’s history. But on the other hand, perhaps they aren’t even the worst team this season (see: Saint Louis). Anyway, whatever small number of American football fans there are in London to see this game will almost certainly be disappointed by this matchup. After this inevitable debacle, you could almost forgive them for preferring to watch the other “football,” where 150-pound nancy-boys in knee socks run around all day, while occasionally rolling around in the grass with an “agonizing” injury that clears itself up about 3.5 nanoseconds after some clown pulls a colored square out of his pants. (On second thought, never mind; that simply cannot be forgiven.)
RJ’s Pick – NEW YORK GIANTS BY 15
Oakland (2-4) at Tennessee (4-2) – 1:00 pm (Sheridan’s Line – Titans by 7½)
Oakland lost at home to Kansas City last week. The main problem the Raiders have is that they are not what I like to call “good.” They’re 29th in the league in passing yards per game, and they are 29th in the league in rushing yards allowed. However, they do run the ball well, although LaMont Jordan’s performances have been getting less and less impressive every game since Week Two. If this trend continues, he’ll be running backwards by mid-November. The Titans won an exciting game on the road against division-rival Houston last week. QB Vince Young seems to have recovered from his leg injury and is expected to be able to start this game, which was hailed as great news by everybody except Tennessee’s wide receivers.
RJ’s Pick – TENNESSEE BY 4
Philadelphia (2-4) at Minnesota (2-4) – 1:00 pm (Sheridan’s Line – Eagles by 1½)
The Eagles lost another close game last week, this time to the Bears. They’ve given up the second-fewest points in the NFC. But they’ve only scored 116 points through six games, which is less than 20 points per game. And if you exclude their bizarre 56-point explosion in Week Three, they’ve scored a total of 60 points in their other five games, or just twelve points per game. But the odd thing is, they are 8th in the league in yards per game. So they are able to move the ball, but they aren’t able to get it in the endzone. I blame offensive coordinator Marty Mornhinweg for the poor performance of Philadelphia’s red-zone offense. (Also, I’m still angry at him for winning that overtime coin toss and choosing to kick.) Minnesota lost to Dallas last week. Thankfully for the Vikings, QB Tarvaris Jackson broke a finger on his throwing hand in yet another atrocious performance, so Kelly Holcomb will start under center this week. I don’t expect much scoring in this one.
RJ’s Pick – MINNESOTA BY 3
Pittsburgh (4-2) at Cincinnati (2-4) – 1:00 pm (Sheridan’s Line – Steelers by 3½)
The Steelers lost at Denver on SNF last week, 31-28. Despite their loss in that high-scoring game, they’ve still given up the fewest points in the NFL. They also have the second-best rushing offense in the league, in terms of yards per game. The Bengals beat the Jets last week. They’ve given up the fourth-most points in the league. On a positive note, their passing attack is averaging 273.7 yards per game, third in the NFL. But Carson Palmer is throwing too many INTs.
RJ’s Pick – PITTSBURGH BY 7
Buffalo (2-4) at New York Jets (1-6) – 4:05 pm (Sheridan’s Line – Jets by 3)
Buffalo beat the Ravens last week. They’ve scored the fewest points in the AFC. It’s interesting, though, that this team could easily be 4-2, because their losses against Denver in Week One and Dallas in Week Five were both games they really should have won. Change just one play in each of those games, and the Bills would be looking like a possible Wild Card team. The Jets were defeated by the Bengals last week, their fourth loss in a row. Their defense has given up the second-most points in the AFC. Chad Pennington will remain the Jets starting QB, at least for another week. I’m going with the upset.
RJ’s Pick – BUFFALO BY 3
Houston (3-4) at San Diego (3-3) – 4:05 pm (Sheridan’s Line – No Line)
Houston lost a shootout last week to Tennessee, 38-36. They’ve now lost two in a row, and any playoff hopes they had after starting the season 2-0 are quickly slipping away. Ahman Green’s knee injury has really crippled Houston’s running game. The Chargers had a bye last week. They will be practicing for this week’s game in Arizona due to the severe wildfires in Southern California. It’s hard to say whether the combination of a week off, a major natural disaster, and practice on a strange field will effect their game. But I do know that the Chargers have won their last two games, both against division rivals, by a combined score of 69-17. And I also know that San Diego should be a big favorite in this matchup, but there is no line offered for this game. Hmmm…
RJ’s Pick – SAN DIEGO BY 1
Jacksonville (4-2) at Tampa Bay (4-3) – 4:05 pm (Sheridan’s Line – Buccaneers by 4)
The Jaguars lost at home to the Colts on MNF last week. They have given up the second-fewest points in the NFL. They are also averaging 148.5 yards on the ground per game, third-best in the league. But there is some big, bad news to report: David Garrard, who was having a terrific season, with a 102.9 quarterback rating and 0 INTS, is out for a month with a severe ankle sprain. That means Quinn Gray will get his first NFL start this week. That should be, ah, interesting to watch. Tampa Bay lost last week at Detroit, despite outgaining the Lions by almost 150 yards, completely dominating the time-of-possession, and QB Jeff Garcia having a career day. The Buccaneers are 3-0 at home this season. This should be a low-scoring contest.
RJ’s Pick – TAMPA BAY BY 2
New Orleans (2-4) at San Francisco (2-4) – 4:15 pm (Sheridan’s Line – Saints by 2½)
The Saints won their second game in a row last week, beating the Falcons 22-16. In their first three games, they allowed 103 points; in their last three, they’ve allowed just 49. In his first four games, Drew Brees had 1 TD and 9 INTs; in his last two games, he has 4 TDs and 1 INT. Point is, this team is improving quickly. The San Francisco 49ers, however, just seem to be getting worse. They have lost four in a row, including a blowout loss to the Giants last week. They’ve scored the fewest points in the NFL. RB Frank Gore and QB Alex Smith are both banged up. I see no reason to pick the home team here.
RJ’s Pick – NEW ORLEANS BY 5
Washington (4-2) at New England (7-0) – 4:15 pm (Sheridan’s Line – Patriots by 16½)
The Redskins edged out Arizona last week, 21-19. They have given up the fewest points in the NFC. Unfortunately, their offense is pretty anemic. Washington’s top two rushers, Clinton Portis and Ladell Betts, are averaging 3.9 and 2.9 yards per carry, respectively. QB Jason Campbell has as many INTs as TDs (5), and his quarterback rating is just 78.5. They are going to have to do better than their average of 189.8 passing yards per game to beat the Patriots. New England won at Miami last week, for their seventh blowout win in seven games. Tom Brady passed for 354 yards, 6 TDs, 0 INTs, and then went home and banged a supermodel. His quarterback rating is somewhere around Bobby Fischer’s IQ. No way the Redskins win this one.
RJ’s Pick – NEW ENGLAND BY 20
Monday, October 29, 2007
RJ’S GAME OF THE WEEK: Green Bay (5-1) at Denver (3-3) – 8:30 pm (Sheridan’s Line – Broncos by 3)
The Packers had a bye last week. The week before that, they barely won at home against the Redskins. The week before that, they lost at home to the Bears. They are dead last in the NFL with just 65.7 yards per game on the ground. However, they are second in the league with 273.7 passing yards per game. Also, the Green Bay defense is slightly above average. The Denver Broncos beat the Steelers last week on SNF. They are fifth in the NFL in yards per game, but 26th in points per game. Their defense is last in the league against the run, but second-best against the pass. QB Jay Cutler has more picks than TDs. RB Travis Henry is questionable for this week’s game due to bruised ribs. Basically, this is a matchup to see who wins when the worst rushing (but second-best passing) offense faces the worst rushing (but second-best passing) defense. It really could go either way, especially in Denver and with a national audience.
RJ’s Pick – DENVER BY 1
[Bye Week Teams: Arizona (3-4), Atlanta (1-6), Baltimore (4-3), Dallas (6-1), Kansas City (4-3), Seattle (4-3)]
Recap
RJ’s Week Eight Picks: BROWNS, LIONS, COLTS, GIANTS, TITANS, VIKINGS, STEELERS, BILLS, CHARGERS, BUCCANEERS, SAINTS, PATRIOTS, BRONCOS
* I picked SIX Home teams and SEVEN Away teams [if you count Miami as a "home" team in the game to be played in London...]
* I picked NINE Favorites and THREE Underdogs [and one game had no line...]
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