Fantasy College Blitz

The 2009 season saw a broad toning down of scoring and offensive statistics in the Big 12 compared to the frenzied shootouts of 2008 and to some extent 2007. 2010 looks to be a continuation of that trend, as the conference has lost its top two quarterbacks and most of its top receivers. Additionally, the defenses that improved in 2009 appear to be similarly strong in 2010.

Of course, the most obvious change will likely take place at Texas Tech. With Mike Leach gone and Tommy Tuberville in place, the Texas Tech starting QB and their receiving corps is no longer a lock to put up big numbers week after week. Tuberville claims to be committed to the spread, but a) that’s a claim we’ve heard before (when Tony Franklin was OC at Auburn) and b) earlier this spring, Tuberville also said that Tech QBs had been concerned about the lack of support from a running game – likely a hint that the offense would be undergoing at least some level of changes. But even if Tubbs were to commit to the spread, you don’t just step in and run an offense like Mike Leach does. So expect decline there.Texas will be without Colt McCoy and Jordan Shipley. Oklahoma loses Sam Bradford and Jermaine Gresham – neither of whom played much/any in 2009 – but also line anchor Trent Williams and Brody Eldridge.

Zac Robinson and Dez Bryant are no longer at Oklahoma State; Missouri loses their top two WR from last season, Kansas loses Todd Reesing, Desmon Briscoe, and Kerry Meier; Kansas State loses 4 of their top 5 receivers… it is just not looking like a good year for many offenses.

On the bright side, Texas A&M returns most of their starting offense, and Baylor should rebound in a big way if QB Robert Griffin stays healthy.g

Once again, Texas, Oklahoma, and Nebraska should field very formidable defenses – possibly all top ten units in the nation. Because of their elite defenses, one of these three teams should finish with the best record in the conference. A&M might be considered a sleeper; however, to win the Big 12 South they will have to show much more consistency than they have in recent years.

Nonetheless, there are still many players in the conference worth looking at:

Jerrod Johnson’s poised to make this conference his?

Jerrod Johnson is the clear preseason favorite for top conference QB here, and as a dual threat QB his rushing TDs will be a big boost to fantasy stats.

Blaine Gabbert benefits from an incredibly easy non-conference schedule and the fact that the Tigers do not face the Big 12′s top secondary, Texas.

Gabbert narrowly beats out Robert Griffin, who is likely to struggle against TCU, Texas, and Oklahoma as those defenses will give the Baylor offense fits. (Nonetheless, I’m half-expecting and whole-heartedly rooting for Griffin to lead Baylor to a bowl eligible season.)

Landry Jones will lead an Oklahoma offense that returns most of its receiving corps and can only expect improvement over 2009.

If it gets this late in the draft, Garrett Gilbert and Austen Arnaud are your two best bets. We likely know what we’re getting with Arnaud – solid production but an offense that isn’t going to put the ball in the end zone a lot. Gilbert is more of a question mark — I think he performed admirably against Alabama given the circumstances, and that 2010 will be a redeeming season for him. But on the other hand, the team’s best WR (who caught both TD passes against the Tide) is also gone and the running game has been problematic for several seasons now.

Running Backs

The Big 12 has no nationally elite running backs. However, there are some good picks in this bunch.

Daniel Thomas basically is that Kansas State offense. He may not score heaps of TDs because of the team he plays for, but he’s got a good shot to finish in the top 10 nationally in rushing yards just because of the volume of carries he gets.

Demarco Murray is in the opposite situation. Oklahoma’s offense is bound to improve, and with Chris Brown gone, Murray should be nearing full-time status in the red zone. He can expect a lot of scores.

Kendall Hunter should be the focus of Oklahoma State’s offense now that Zac Robinson and Dez Bryant are gone. Keith Toston is also gone, so Hunter will reclaim his featured role.

Looking a little down out list, Derrick Washington will be playing in an offense that could score a lot of points, and his priority will be emphasized in the red zone as some of the experienced WRs are gone. Alexander Robinson is likely to be a major emphasis (along with Arnaud) for the otherwise lackluster Iowa State offense.

Roy Helu has become something of a name in the conference, but I expect Nebraska’s offensive woes to only slightly improve in 2010. Likewise, Christine Michael’s stats may be hurt by the fact that Jerrod Johnson himself is a threat to run in the red zone, so Michael may be deprived of some of the easy scores that other top fantasy RBs get.

Baron Batch plays for an offense that has been prolific in the past, and his new coach has hinted at more of a running game than the team has used in the past. However, I am skeptical that this Tech offense will continue putting up numbers even resembling those of previous seasons.

Rodney Stewart is probably the only other RB in the conference worth looking at.

 Wide Receiver/Tight End

The first pick at WR is easy, as Ryan Broyles had a monster season in 2009 and could be the nation’s top fantasy receiver in 2010. Broyles doubled as the conference’s top punt return man in 2009.

Jeff Fuller won’t be in Broyles’ point range, but he has been Johnson’s favorite target in the past and should be the #2 receiver in the conference.

Beyond this, things are less clear. Detron Lewis and Alexander Torres both had similar stats a season ago for Texas Tech. With Torres having been just a freshman, he should be expected to see the greater improvement, and thus could be the third-most productive receiver in the conference.

Jerrell Jackson is the top receiver returning at Missouri and could be due a 1,000 yard season. Wes Kemp ought to settle in as the offense’s #2, but I see no reason he won’t be within 200 yards of Jackson.

Anyone expecting a resurgence of Robert Griffin should look for Kendall Wright to be catching plenty of balls and getting more open looks as defenses struggle with Griffin’s mobility.

Malcolm Williams had more yards per catch than any other Texas receiver in 2009, and could lead the team in yards in 2010. The problem is that James Kirkendoll outscored him in TDs 6 to 2. One of these will likely be the top receiver on the team… with Gilbert throwing a deeper ball than McCoy, that could be Williams.

Scotty McKnight emerged as a reliable receiver at Colorado, and could easily place above the Tex recivers and Wright on this list. There is some variance here due to Colorado’s offensive issues, particularly at QB.

For Oklahoma State, Hubert Anyiam stepped up to become the #1 receiver after Dez Bryant became ineligible. However, Anyiam had just 515 yards and 3 TDs in this role, and shouldn’t challenge the top of the league’s receiving stats.

At the TE position, Mike McNeill is the clear league favorite and will get decent production in Nebraska’s offense. The rest of the league is full of question marks at TE. Missouri could well field the #2 TE because of the offense they run, but whether that will be Andrew Jones or Michael Egnew is not completely clear at this point.

Kickers

Place kicker is a very strong position for the Big 12, and just about everyone is returning their kicker from 2009 (save for Texas).

Grant Russell hit 26/27 for Missouri in 2009 and could be the nation’s top kicker in 2010.

Alex Henery was reliable for Nebraska with an 86% conversion rate, and his stats are helped by the fact that Nebraska’s defense often puts the offense in favorable positions, but the offense is often unable to put the ball in the end zone. He is the most likely challenger to Russell’s spot at #1.

After these two, the question becomes which teams will likely get the ball into field goal range the most. Oklahoma State and Texas Tech are my picks here as both could be running fairly one-dimensional offenses that don’t quite fire on all cylinders, but are still successful enough to push the ball well past midfield.

Texas actually was one of three Big 12 teams to have a kicker hit over 20 field goals in 2009 (nobody else hit over 13 in fact), but Hunter Lawrence is gone – replaced by John Tucker who did most of the punting last year as well as handling kickoffs – and the offense is full of question marks.

Betting on Oklahoma’s offense never seems like a bad idea, and returning kicker Jimmy Stevens converted 11 of 13 last season. I’d look for a 50-100 point improvement for this offense over the season, and Stevens would obviously see a large chunk of that.

Defense

As mentioned, the Big 12 has three top tier defenses. In this order: Texas, Nebraska, Oklahoma. Beyond these three, Texas Tech might see some improvement under a more defense-minded coach, and Missouri looks like a passable choice if your options are limited.

Fantasy College Blitz

Well Buckeye fans, this is the year the Buckeyes take the BCS title.  They are loaded with weapons and ready to unleash their destruction upon anyone that steps in their way.  If the Terrelle Pryor (featured on the right, thanks SMI) we saw in the Rose Bowl shows up this season, the Buckeyes will be unstoppable.  It is time for the Buckeyes to take the next step and become national champions.

Head coach Jim Tressell has a team with plenty of experience and weapons.  This year he will utilize those weapons more efficiently than ever.  Expect to see better passing numbers from Terrelle Pryor. The QB has shown he knows how to use his legs to open up the passing game and he was throwing lasers in the Rose Bowl.  His completion percentage should take a huge jump this season and his rushing yards should decline a little as Tressell attempts to get the QB to throw more this year.

That is good news for RB Brandon Saine, who rushed for 739 yards and 4 TD’s last year.  Saine should get more work this season and come closer to posting 1,000 yards.  Dan Herron should also see increased carries this season and improve on his 600 yards from 2009.

The Buckeyes have two of the top Big 10 receivers returning this year.  Expect to see big numbers from DeVier Posey who posted 828 yards and 8 TD’s last season.  Dane Sanzenbacher will also see an increase in numbers over last years 570 yards and 6 TD’s.  Both receivers will benefit from breakdowns in coverage created by Pryor scrambling around in the backfield.  Tight End Jake Stoneburner is a great blocker and has the ability to get down the field.The Buckeye defense will be one of the best in the nation this year.  Ross Homan, Brian Rolle, Chimdi Chekwa and Cameron Heyward anchor this defensive unit.  The only weakness for now is concerning the safeties.  But when you have big monsters attacking the offense and keeping the opposing QB on his heels, it should keep the pressure off your safeties.

The good news for the Iowa Hawkeyes is that QB Ricky Stanzi is back for his Sr. year and it should be a great one.  He finished last year with 2,417 yards and 17 TD’s.  The downside, he also threw 15 interceptions.  He has to reduce that number for the Hawkeyes to have a real chance at contending for the Big Ten title against Ohio State.  The offensive line has some questions with the loss of three big men from last year.  With a rebuilding line and a tendency to play close games, as well as falling behind early in games, it may put pressure on Stanzi to produce those numbers again this year.

The bright side is the running game will take some of the heat off Stanzi.  Adam Robinson should see an increase in his number over last years 834 yards and 5 TD’s.  Brandon Wegher compiled 641 yards last year and 8 TD’s.  Jewel Hampton, who tore his ACL last August, also returns to give coach Kirk Ferentz a triple threat running attack.  Expect the bulk of the carries from Robinson but Wegher and Hampton should split the rest of the work load.

Stanzi does have the luxury of throwing to two familiar faces at the wide receiver position.  Derrell Johnson-Koulianos hauled in 750 yards last year and 2 TD’s while Marvin McNutt pulled in 674 yards and 8 TD’s.  Expect to see similar yardage numbers from these guys and an increase in TD’s for Johnson-Koulianos.  Tight End Andy Reisner returns and should see a better year than last years 143 yards and 1 TD.

The Defense should be tested this season after an impressive 2009 campaign.  They should be able to fill many of the holes and build on an already strong and experienced defensive core.

The big question is who is that playing QB this year for the Penn State Nittany Lions?  Kevin Newsome is expected to be the guy.  He has good size and is mobile enough to buy time as he learns how to run the Spread HD attack.  Newsome will be a gamble in fantasy leagues this year but will be one with lots of upside potential considering the weapons he has at his disposal.

It doesn’t hurt to have one of the best running backs in the conference in your backfield.  Evan Royster should build on last years numbers (1169 yards and 6 TD’s) as he carries more of the load this year.  Royster is one of those backs that can be fed the ball 20 or more times a game and do well.  Something Newsome can use in his first year.

The receiving game is one of the best in the Big Ten with Derek Moye (785 yards and 6 TD’s) and Graham Zug (600 yards and 7 TD’s).  Chaz Powell also had 28 catches last year.  All three may see a slight decline in numbers this year with a new QB.  From a fantasy perspective the tight end spot is a gamble.  Andrew Szczerba is expected to be the starter but he caught just one pass last year.  Add in the fact that he has a new QB and it is a tough call on what to expect from the TE spot.

The defense has some big holes to fill this year but Joe Pa has always had good defensive units.  Bani Gbadyu and Nathan Stupar should provide solid replacements at linebacker.  The defensive line has Ollie Ogbu and Jack Crawford returning to a strong line.  The safeties are strong as well with the return of Drew Astorino and Nick Sukay.

I have the Wisconsin Badgers ranked 4^th in the Big Ten mainly due to their defense and concerns over the way the team struggled after tough losses in 2009.  They could be a surprise team this year though since they don’t have to play Penn State and their toughest games are back to back against Ohio State and Iowa.  The rest of the schedule is not that bad.

Scott Tolzien returns to lead the Badger air attack where he compiled 2,705 yards and 16 TD’s in 2009 and led the Big Ten in passing efficiency.  He should improve in accuracy, passing yards and TD’s this year as well as cut down on those pesky INT’s.

The key to the Badger attack though is all about RB John Clay, the Big Ten Offensive Player of the Year last year.  Clay racked up 1,517 yards and scored 18 times.  Expect big numbers again from Clay as he makes a run for the Heisman behind his big offensive line.  All five offensive lineman return for another season to pave the way for Clay.

At the receiver spot Tolzien will have one of the best Big Ten wide outs in Nick Toon to throw too again.  Last year, Nick caught 54 balls for 805 yards and 4 TD’s.  Look for Nick to improve on those numbers this year.  Isaac Anderson will also return and should improve on last years 480 yards and 2 TD’s.  Lance Kendricks should fill in well at Tight end and improve on last years 356 yards and 3 TD’s.

The Defense is a big question mark for the Badgers.  Three of the front four have left and there are some really big shoes to fill at end.  In total, five starters on defense have to be replaced and that is a little alarming.  Last year the Badger defense yielded an average of 21.8 points a game.  I’m not sure this Badger defense will be better than that.  I would try to find another defense to draft.

Ironic that as a new decade rolls in we witness the possible player of the previous decade Tim Tebow create quite the exclamation point for his career.

In the Florida Gators Sugar Bowl 51-24 throttling of the Cincinnati Bearcats on January 1,  Tebow threw for a career high of 482 yards and three TDs, then ran for another TD and enough yards to eclipse 500 yards of total offense. Games like that truly happen only once in a blue moon, and I wonder if this week’s version may have had a little orange aurora.

From Jeremy Fowler of the Orlando Sentinel, Tebow called prolific ending to a prolific career “better than a dream.”

“I didn’t see this coming as far as that many yards and everything,” Tebow said. “I knew we had a good game plan. I knew we were going to try to spread it out a little bit. We felt like that would be successful. And just coming into the game, we just were hitting and clicking so we kept going with it and ended up obviously throwing for a lot of yards.”

Many (including us shortly) will debate the NFL potential of the Tebow Child, and many have grown weary of the infinite media coverage that the Heisman Pundit calls Tebow Fatigue – fantasy players like to deal in facts, so let us reflect for a moment on the amazing career which can be argued was the finest college football player ever.

NCAAsports.com Tim Tebow, Florida

55 Games | Rushing – 2946 yds, 57 TD |Passing – 9285 yds, 88 TD
Total Offense – 12231 yards, tops in SEC History
2007 – led nation with 55 TD (23 run, 32 pass) (first 20-20 season in NCAAF history)
Two National Championships, One Heisman Trophy

Sure, Dan Lefeveour outpaces Tebow in total TDs and total yards, but that last line makes the difference between a Fantasy Player of the Decade and the best college football player of all time.

A final note on the statistical brilliance of Tebow – his high school numbers at St. Augustine Nease. Tebow finished his high school career with 9,810 passing yards, 3,186 rushing yards, 95 passing touchdowns and 62 rushing touchdowns. So sixteen miles of total offense before he is legally able to rent a car.

And then there is the ministry work…we should all be so productive in our lives.

Kudos to Number 15 for an amazing journey, and best wishes for his new journey in the NFL or wherever it takes him.

In place of the usual Saturday Morning College Football Breakfast Burrito, let us focus on how Colt McCoy wrapped up the Heisman Trophy this week.

Aiming for the Heisman

I know Alabama RB Mark Ingram was nicked up yesterday, but Texas QB Colt McCoy took the lead in my two man race for the 2009 Heisman Trophy with his huge five TD performance on Thanksgiving Night.

Toby Gerhart, Tim Tebow and CJ Spiller have created stellar seasons, but to me the combo of 2009 stats and team success now tilts strongly in the main Longhorns favor. And with this season’s race for player of the year as tight as ever, the “body of work” vote has to go to McCoy.

If there was ever a time for the 500+ Heisman voters to default to the career numbers when the season’s numbers appear debatable, look at the weight of Colt McCoy’s career numbers:

In addition to breaking the NCAA record for career QB victories (43), McCoy improved his career total offense numbers to 14,172, sixth on the NCAA all-time list.  He also has 12,756 career passing yards (7th in NCAA history), 108 career passing TDs (7th), 126 career TDs responsible for (6th) and his 70.9 career completion percentage ranks as tops in NCAA history. McCoy has led the Longhorns to victory in 24 of the last 25 games (.960). That record includes two bowl-game victories and eight wins over ranked opponents.

The deadline for Heisman Trophy votes is Sunday December 6, the ceremony is set for Saturday December 12.

Also worthy of mention: Three teams would be nothing without them: Houston QB Case Keenum, Nebraska DT Ndumakong Suh and Georgia Tech QB Josh Nesbitt.

Fantasy College Blitz

There used to be a top tier of six – I have narrowed it down to Three for this week’s CBSSports.com Blogpoll Top 25.

Rank	Team
1	Florida
2	Alabama
3	Texas
4	Iowa
5	Cincinnati
6	TCU
7	Boise State
8	Oregon
9	Georgia Tech
10	LSU
11	Penn State
12	Pittsburgh
13	Utah
14	Southern Cal
15	Houston
16	Miami (Florida)
17	Oklahoma State
18	Ohio State
19	California
20	Arizona
21	South Florida
22	Notre Dame
23	Virginia Tech
24	Oklahoma
25	South Carolina

Random thoughts after the jump.

I hated doing it, but the three loss teams in Blacksburg and Norman would crush Central Michigan, South Carolina or Wisconsin – so they get the nod.

Southern Cal and Oklahoma State drop precipitously on the heels of bad shows against conference foes. Let this Cowboy representative remind all that they have losses to two ranked teams, and the Longhorns may be the best in the nation.

I cannot believe that Iowa continues to live on the bleeding edge – I wonder aloud what may happen if Iowa plays Florida since God doesn’t want either to lose. The only way they could play is the Citrus or the Outback Bowl, but divine intervention would focus elsewhere if that matchup were to exist.

Where would Boise rate if Oregon were to lose?

Proof that life means you cannot take a week off – Pitt loss to NC State and Houston lost to UTEP. Pitt is one of the few complete teams in all three phases, but the Panthers may spend all of December wondering what may have been if they could close out the Wolfpack. Likewise, imagine a triumverate of BCS-busters if the visit to El Paso had “gone chalk”?

What is your vote?

Fantasy College Blitz

The interesting thing about the wide receiver position in college football is; the large number of guys that come out of nowhere and the difficulty in maintaining or improving on great numbers from the previous season.  You can bet that there will be at least 10 guys who finish in the Top 20 WRs this year that aren’t even in the Top 50 this year…heck maybe not even in the Top 100.  It is difficult to know who the QB will build rapport with when dealing with new QBs or WRs and for situations when they are both returning it is often easy for a defensive to take the star receiver out of the game.

This means if you are drafting a WR early then you need to make sure that there is little changes in the situation from the previous year.

This also means that once you get passed the Top 30 or so receivers then it is time to get more aggressive with your picks.  Look for receivers in passing systems with plenty of uncertainty at the WR position like Texas Tech, North Texas, Hawaii, Oklahoma, BYU.  All of these schools are expected to air the ball out and someone has to be the go-to receivers.

Under-Rated

Benn: Due for fantasy breakthrough?

Arrelious Benn – Illinois:  Everyone knows the talent that Benn possesses, but he has been a huge fantasy bust throughout his career.  The reason is lack of TDs throughout his career.  This year, the Illinois offense returns just about everyone and should be one of the tops in the Big Ten. Meaning, defenses won’t be able to key on Benn.

Everything I have read in the off-season points to Benn getting every opportunity to finally see the endzone. Reading in-between the lines has me believing, despite reading the same thing last year from Coach Zook.

Jeremy Williams – Tulane:  Williams is flying under the radar because his over-all stats from last year were only 27 catches for 437 yards and 5 TDs.  However, this was only in 4 ½ games as he missed the rest of the season with an injury.  Williams is a very talented WR playing in a conference that must use its little talent on defense trying to contain Andre Anderson.  If he can avoid injury then at least 1000 yards and 10 TDs is realistic numbers to expect for him.

Malcolm Williams – Texas:  I find it sort of interesting that everyone is predicting a monster year from Colt McCoy yet only Jordan Shipley is being drafted high from the offense.  Quann Crosby last year had 92 catches 1123 yards and 10 TDs but is now trying his luck in the NFL.

Let me put it this way, if you believe McCoy is going to be a finalist for the Heisman than a 2nd Texas WR is going to finish in the Top 25. The Longhorns have no running game and Jordan Shipley isn’t going to catch for 2000 yards, especially if they aren’t getting production from the #2 receiver.  Williams is extremely talented and I wouldn’t be completely shocked if he finishes the season with stats close to Shipley’s.

McKay Jacobson – BYU:  The Cougars get to break in a whole new group of receivers this year but with Max Hall slinging the ball around for 3750+ yards, someone has to be on the other end.  Jacobson is an unknown after fulfilling his missionary work but is the clear #1 receiver on the depth chart and all reports indicate he is dominating.While it can be scary drafting a player with no track record, Jacobson could easily give you Top 10 receiver production for a mid-round pick.

Naaman Roosevelt – Buffalo: Roosevelt had 104 catches for 1402 yards and 13 TDs last year yet is getting drafted in the mid-rounds.  The reason is that Buffalo is breaking in a new QB that most people just don’t have a lot of faith in.  I agree with the general consensus that his numbers are going to decline but I think people are over-thinking this and letting him fall too far.  104 catches is no fluke. That is a receiver who is running crisp routes, getting open and catching the ball.  Drew Wily was a good QB but he wasn’t the second coming of Brett Favre so don’t be afraid to draft Roosevelt if he starts to slide.

Over-Rated

Jones: More loved by the media than fantasy owners

Julio Jones – Alabama:  A consistent theme for over-rated players is the media hype and NFL draft projections.  Take a look at the top receivers of the draft over the past 10 years and you will see players who, more often than not, disappointed college fantasy owners.  Jones is a tremendous talent but now loses a solid, smart college QB John Parker Wilson and must deal with a noob throwing him the ball.  Also he busted on the scene as a true freshman which meant defensive coordinators had very little film on him.  Jones will continue to be loved by the media but fantasy owners will be left disappointed this year.

A.J. Green – Georgia: Green shares a lot in common with Jones in regards to being a freshman last year, highly talented and media hyped.  The Bulldogs lost two offensive weapons to the NFL in the Top 12 picks in Matthew Stafford and Knowshon Moreno. While I expect the offense to be better off than Alabama, it is still two players that defenses schemed against.  Now the big man on the offense is Green who will have a tougher time this year than he did last year.  Like Jones, I love the talent of Green but this isn’t the year I would expect to be fantasy studs.

Lyle Leong – Texas Tech:  I was all over Leong when I drafted him in the 10th round of the Athlon mock draft back in May. After-all, he was Taylor Potts go-to receiver in high school and expected to move into the starting lineup this year.  I still like Leong but he is starting to get too much fantasy hype and is getting drafted too high.  The Red Raiders have a bunch of players like Edward Britton, Alex Torres and Tramain Swindall to go along with Detron Lewis vying for passes and it is too unpredictable to use a high pick on Leong.  With Leong getting the hype, Torres has now become the sleeper to target.

Toren Dixon – Rice:  Dixon is getting a lot of love on draft day by people expecting the Owls to continue to be a fantasy super-team.  At this point it remains to be seen if they can continue momentum after losing Chase Clement, James Casey and Jarett Dillard plus offensive coordinator Tom Herman.  Dixon is a nice receiver but there are far too many question marks to assume he will be a 1000+ yard 8+ TD receiver. Many are assuming this based on where he has been getting drafted.

Jerrel Jernigan – Troy:  Jernigan is a someone I really do like so it is a little nitpicking to say he is over-rated but I think people are under-estimating the impact of Oklahoma transfer Josh Jarboe. Jernigan is still going to get his stats but I think Jarboe will prevent him from taking the next step.  Don’t be afraid to draft him, but I would think twice before reaching for him too high.

Others ‘sleepers’ to watch:

Alex Torres – Texas Tech

Armon Binns – Cincinnati

Darius Darks – Iowa State

Jamaal Jackson – North Texas

Dwight Jones – North Carolina

Royce Pollard – Hawaii

Kamar Aiken – UCF

Aldarius Johnson – Miami

Josh Jarboe – Troy

Phillip Livas – LaTech

Fantasy College Blitz

The most common complaint about new owners playing fantasy college football revolves around the number of teams one must cover, but I think that the exact opposite is true.

Call me a glass-half-full guy, but the opportunity to choose from 120 teams each week puts less pressure on you to nail down a starter at QB and at defense during your draft.

Most NFL fantasy leagues support 12 owners to choose from 32 teams means that if each team were to pick 2 QB or D then 3/4 of the supply is drafted.

If the same tactics apply to your college league, that leaves more the 3/4 of the nation available for you in the free agent pool. Even if you just play the Big Six conferences plus ND then a little less than 2/3 of the pool is still available.

Today I will focus on “value” defenses that should not require an early draft pick nor more than a dollar if your auction. I hesitate to call them all sleepers since there are some strong programs here, but common themes here are a simple September schedule (so some big schools here), strong coaching staff, low team expectations and/or returning studs.

In no particular order, my red dog blitz of defenses for Double-digit rounds of your draft…

USF Bulls – a pathetic September slate finishes up in Florida State but has two FCS teams and a visit to Western Kentucky. No matter who you put in those uni’s that should be enough, but when you add in a great DB tradition and the return of George Silvie and a great freshman/JUCO class this could be the unleashing of hell. In October they do have to face Cincy and West virginia, but both are at home on a short week. I am bullish on the Bulls again, which of course means for the third season in a row that they will disappoint with a surprising loss (like Louisville last season).

Clemson Tigers – a perennial underachieving team that cost another Bowden his job (one more to go) but it will be curious to see how they operate when few are watching. The early schedule is not easy (MTSU, @GT, BC, TCU) but I am willing to bank on the outrageously talented front seven led by tweener Ricky Sapp, 8 returning starters on D and new DC Kevin Steele coming in after an amazing two year run in Alabama. This was a Top 20 defense in the 2008 BlitzIndex, expect the same in 2009.

North Carolina State Wolfpack – first off, this might be the value of the 2009 draft at any position – Wolfpack lead the nation with EIGHT HOME GAMES, including the first four with two FCS teams. Someone forgot to tell Willie Young he could have been a first day NFL Draft pick so he is back to lead a very good D-line under 3rd year HC Tom O’Brien. Nine returning starters back and the experience should help a unit that allowed more then 30 ppg last year. I wondered aloud last season if the ACC was better than it seemed because of all the parity causing lots of losses all around, time to see if that hypothesis is valid.

Ohio Bobcats – My buddy Phil and I took a break from work and discussed which conference has the most head coaches with national titles. He was about to dismiss the MAC until I told him to wait a moment and think – he needed a hint to remember Frank Solich (Nebraska, 2001). Bobcats somehow avoid the usual September “rent-a-victim” road trips and the one very big school on the schedule is Tennessee whose offense likely remains putrid. No byes until November, all the main returners are back who scored 3 TDs and seven returning starters led by LB Noah Keller makes this an excellent value.

Nebraska Cornhuskers – a return to prominence for the Blackshirts? I think so as Bo Pelini and his bro Carl the DC should get some early national press for their hot start. Check the FAU-Arkansas State – @Virginia Tech – Louisiana September schedule. Huskers only return 6 but the one-man demolition crew named Ndamukong Suh anchors the line. There are fewer “legacy” programs with more damaged brand names than Nebraska, so grab some corn late and keep your eyes open for free agent defenses to hedge Big 12 schedule.

Rutgers Scarlet Knights – Phil Steele has the Big R facing the easiest schedule of the BCS conference teams. WIth the graduation of all the main players in an amazing offense will likely keep fantasy focus away from here, better for you as eight starters return on the other side of the ball. I mentioned in my Rutgers preview that I don’t care for the co-coordinator setup in Piscataway, but Howard, FIU and Texas Southern in the six weeks should lead to some big turnover numbers. See the preview also for my full schedule breakdown.

San Diego State Aztecs - while the Mayans get all the cultural focus these days, remember the Aztecs if you really wanna shock your fantasy friends. Fantasyheads know that Ball State’s Head Coach Brady Hoke upgraded his zip code to coach here, but less known is that former New Mexico Head Coach Rocky Long is now running the defense and he has skills. Long blitzes every down and was quickly hired after getting fired in Albuquerque. My quick count is that there are only four good offenses on the tilt. This is the epitome of the “Sleeper” Defense.

Fantasy College Blitz

A good fantasy pick

1) Andre Anderson – Tulane: Anderson was off to a fantastic start last year before busting up his shoulder in the 7th game of the season against Rice. He had 854 and 7 scores through the first 6 games including two tough matchups against Alabama and East Carolina. Based on the talent of Anderson and the schedule he plays, the only thing preventing him from being the top fantasy back this season is whether or not his shoulder holds up. In a year with no clear cut #1 back, Anderson has too much upside to not be the first back off the board.2) LeGarrette Blount – Oregon : Blount is far more talented that Anderson and would probably run for 2500 yards playing for Tulane, but instead he is stuck behind a make-shift offensive line playing in the Pac-10. Blount also showed up out-of-shape in the spring, plays for a system that historically splits carries, and has some discipline concerns that prevent him from being the clear-cut #1 running back. With all of that said, he is arguably the most talented running back in the country coming off a season in which he ran for 1002 yards and 17 TDs on only 137 carries, which equates to a mind-boggling 7.3 ypc. While Oregon has shared carries in the past, there isn’t really a back-up RB that is worthy of stealing a ton of carries. The Duck’s offense will score 40+ points a game this year making Blount a lock for 20+ TDs this season. Yeah, there are risks… but all the backs this year have risks.

3) James Starks – Buffalo : There is two sides of the argument that could be made regarding Starks in 2009. One argument claims that with Drew Willy graduating, defenses will be able to focus on stopping the running game and thus making it difficult for Starks to repeat his 2008 season of almost 1700 yards combined with 17 total TD difficult. The other argument claims that Buffalo will need to rely on Starks even more and the MAC defenses aren’t good enough to stop him, even if they know he is coming as we saw with Kevin Smith a few years ago with UCF. I think the best approach is to draft him based on last year stats with the possibility of even better stats. Despite the loss Willy, the passing attack should still be good enough to keep defenses from stacking the line.

4) Jahvid Best – California : Best finished 2008 with 1580 rushing yards and 15 TDs with a ridiculous 8.1 ypc, and yet this was somewhat disappointing in my eyes. Best was in the doghouse early in the season followed by a minor injury in which he only got 21 total carries in a 3 game span. It is easy to over-project Best by saying in a full season he will run for 2000 yards. While he could if he got enough carries, the reality is that Best is a small back with a capable backup in Shane Vereen, so expect to see his carries be limited to around 200 as the coaching staff attempts to keep him healthy.

5) Jacquizz Rodgers – Oregon State : Rodgers burst on the scene as a true freshman running for 1253 yards and 11 TDs and should once again be one of the top backs in the country this season. Rodgers, like a lot of young backs with a heavy workload dealt with some nagging injuries, will need to shake that in order to take a step up to elite fantasy status.

6) Kendall Hunter – Oklahoma State : Hunter took advantage of the open space created by the high-powered spread offense of the Cowboys to run for 1555 yards and 16 TDs in 2008. With the offense returning most of its fire-power, Hunter is arguably one of the safest backs in the first two rounds.

7) Bryce Bell – Houston : I like Bell a lot in that offense but with games against Oklahoma State , Texas Tech and Mississippi State, I think his overall stats will be similar to last season. If you draft Bell and can get to Week 7 with a winning record then you are looking quite good since Bell should blow up in the second half of the season against C-USA what-a-be defenses.

Damion Fletcher – USM: Fletcher had a disappointing season last year despite rushing for 1313 yards and 10 TDs because most people were expecting him to at least exceed his 2007 stats of 1586 yards and 15 TDs. Despite some off-season legal issues, I fully expect Fletcher to get back closer to his 2007 stats, if he can stay healthy.

9) Eugene Jarvis – Kent State : Jarvis had an injury-plagued season last year that limited his carries to only 165 for 801yards and 9 TDs. Jarvis is a little guy so injury is always a concern but he has proven to be able to carry the ball 250+ times in the past, and I expect him to get back to that level again this year.

10) John Clay – Wisconsin : Clay is a big talented running back who will be given every opportunity to be the next great Badger running back. Motivating issues and a nagging ankle injury could see him dropping in some leagues but makes for a great pick if you can get him as the 10th back off the board.

11) MiQuale Lewis – Ball State: Lewis had a magical season as he totaled over 2000 yards combined with 22 TDs, yet finds himself ranked as the 11th running back. The reason is that the loss of QB Nate Davis and head coach Brady Hoke has most people assuming Ball State will take a step back. Lewis makes for a risky pick inside the Top 8 RBs or so, but at this spot starts representing a good value compared to risk as the schedule is extremely weak for the Cardinals.

12) Harvey Unga – BYU: Unga has been a very consistent fantasy back over the last two years and is a player that could find himself in the Top 8 before the season ends once some question marks are answered. The Cougars have four new starters on the offensive line and a passing game that needs to find a new set of receivers. Regardless, for those folks who like to avoid risk, Unga in the 3rd round is the guy for you.

13) DeMarco Murray – Oklahoma : Some people are expecting a break-out season that will push him into the elite running back status but that is going to be difficult when splitting carries with Chris Brown. I expect to see a similar season as we saw in 2008 where he combined for 1397 yards and 18 TDs combined rushing/receiving.

14) Matt Asiata – Utah : A big-time sleeper at the running back position who is coming off a 707 yard and 12 TD season in 2008. Why the love? The Utes are expected to give most of the carries to Asiata this season, a TD machine, and should push 20 TDs this year. Utah has been a notorious running back-by-committee team so that is my only concern with Asiata, but all indications are that they do not plan on sharing carries and do not have any backs that seems ready to take carries.

15) Chris Brown – Oklahoma : The other half of the tandem in Norman that despite splitting carries finds himself in the Top 15 for running backs. Brown might not be the highlight reel, like Murray, but he is the guy that gets the rock inside the 10 making another 20 TD season likely.

16) C.J. Spiller – Clemson: This is a gamblers pick special since Spiller has never been a fantasy star, despite getting a ton of press as being one of the top backs in the country. The main reason was the presence of James Davis and a coach in Tommy Bowden that got off on seeing how cute he could get with the play-calling. Reading in-between the lines gives me the feeling that the Tigers are planning on getting Spiller the rock early and often- making him an excellent high-risk, high-return pick.

17) Jake Sharp – Kansas : Sharp is a blue-collar running back that will plug away for a 1000 yards combined. Not bad, but hardly anything to get excited about. However, the value comes with his TDs as the Jayhawks have a very potent offense and will give Sharp plenty of opportunity to score. Look for 1250+ combined yards with 15 TDs.

18) Brandon Minor – Michigan: Minor had an up and down season as he rode the bench for the first 6 games only to be a fantasy star for the next 3 games and then to finish the season banged-up. Minor will surely be a player that needs close attention over the next few months, but as of now he is slated to be the starting running back behind a monster offensive line in a fantasy friendly system for running backs.

19) Jonathan Dwyer – Georgia Tech: Dwyer is one of my favorite talents in college football but just plays in a system that splits the carries too much, which prevents fantasy super-stardom. In 2008 Dwyer carried the ball 200 times for 1395 yards and 12 TDs. I actually expect to see his carries drop down to the 175 range which, no matter how good he is, will limit his upside.

20) Toby Gerhart – Stanford: Gerhart ran for 1136 yards and 15 TDs last season and I expect to see a similar season from him again this year. The lack of receiving yards and splitting carries roughly 60/40 limits his upside.

21) Charles Scott – LSU: Scott is another running back who I am a big fan of talent-speaking, but is in a similar situation as Gerhart in that he doesn’t get receiving yards and has his carries limited as the Tigers want to be a passing team. Scott ran for 1174 yards and 18 TDs in 2008 and I expect him to put up similar stats again this year.

College Fantasy Blitz

Another Dez for Heisman? Unlikely since wide receivers tend to not get the same DAC love of the runners and passers, but odd that the clear top two each share a unique name.

Cowboy Dez Bryant (1) might do this 20 times in 2009 (Icon SMI).

Disclaimer: This list will change before your draft day. Accept it, embrace it. I welcome your comments and feedback but we got three months to kickoff and some of these guys don’t even shave so who knows what could happen over the summer.

Also – I figured I would throw in all the other names as I brainstormed before narrowing  it to 21. Consider it your watch list.

1. Dez Bryant (Oklahoma State) – without question the leading WR going in to 2009. Strong system ratings, returning star QB and RB and a conference that supports a lot of scoring. Did I mention physical skills unmatched by any DB in the country?

2. Dez Briscoe (Kansas) – another physical mismatch with a strong QB in Todd Reesing and a well-schooled system under the tutelage of Mark Mangino.

3. Aldrick Robinson (SMU) – my gut says Robinson will be more productive as Emmanuel Sanders who will be asked to play some defense in addition to his WR duties. Year Two of the June Jones run-and-shoot in Dallas should lift off in a CUSA schedule.

4. Detron Lewis (Texas Tech) the Red Raiders always have a wideout in the Top Ten, my pick for 2009 is Lewis. He will be pushed by the rangy Lyle Leong and new guys like Eric Ward, but Lewis is the best match for the history of 200+ pound wideouts that produce the most fantasy points in the Mike Leach Offense. History also supports the Z receiver (Wide Right) being the star and guess where Lewis is slated after playing slot right last year next to Crabtree? Stay tuned as position switches and fall practice take shape, but my early call is for Lewis.

5.DeAndre Brown (Soputhern Mississippi) – his reurn from that nasty knee injury in the bowl game is far ahead of schedule, showing Wolverine-like healing properties. With Larry Fedora at the helm and Austin Davis returning at QB, Brown should be a lock for the 100-1000-10 goal of a top ten WR.

6. Tyron Carrier (Houston) – came out of nowhere in his freshman season to lead Houston in reciving. With Heisman sleeper QB Case Keenum (and Daniel’s pre-season #1 QB) chucking it all over the lot Carrier

7. Jordan Shipley (Texas) I wonder if soph Malcolm WIlliams possesses a stronger wideout skill set, but senior Shipley’s friendship with QB Colt McCoy weighs heavily on McCoy’s confidence to throw the ball up for Shipley. The senior should be integral to Colt McCoy being a 2009 Heisman candidate.

8. Damian Williams (USC) - might have the best WR tools for the NFLers after Dez Bryant, but Williams is farther down the list due to the new QB situation. Granted, he did just fine with new QB Mark Sanchez in 2008 but either Aaron Corp or Matt Barkley have even fewer starts on their CV than Sanchez did. In fact, they have as many college starts at QB as I do…

9. Mackay Jacobsen (BYU) - you will not see Jacobsen this high on any other list so pay attention here. While on a Mormon mission can slow down an athlete (see Olson, Ben), Jacobsen steps back into BYU after his two-year stint in Japan. 2009 Top Tenner Austin Collie left early for the NFL and Jacobsen may be a better athlete so I really like his chances to rack up 100-1000-10.

10. Eric Decker (Minnesota) – the senior Decker spent the winter and spring as an integral part of the Golden Gopher’s Top 20 baseball team, but his “Hands of Gold” and quickness are huge assets for the football team also. Whether new QB Moses Alipate will compete this season with Adam Weber or not, Decker should continue to improve on the reception and Yardage numbers – TDs fell from 9 to 7 last year unfortunately.

11. Marshawn Gilyard (Cincinnati) – the best returning wide receiver in the Bearcat offense (Marcus Barnett spent the spring at CB) will have the best working relationship with QB Tony Pike, but if my projection is off then it will be at the expense of more passes being thrown to Vidal Hazelton, the transfer from USC that is petitioning for eligibility in 2009. Even if Hazelton plays, Gilyard could produce more at Cincy WR2 than most WR1.

12. Carlos Singleton (MEM) – Hear ye my official over-reach with a 6-6 plus wideout! Happens every season (see Vickers, BJ) Go back to 2005 and QB Arkelon Hall was an Elite 11 QB and ballyhooed as a savior of Washington State football.  2008 returned him to the football scene as the starter at Memphis and year two should be much better. Singleton is a 6-8 nightmare to cover whose stats suffered as Coach Tommy West chose to run the ball more in 2008, I expect a big recovery for Singleton.

13. Ryan Broyles (Oklahoma) – Sam Bradford will not have the luxury of eight seconds to throw this season since there is a rebuilding of the O-line, and to make matters worse his top three wideouts are gone. Superb TE Jermaine Gresham will man the middle and sophomore Broyles should display more of his sneaky fast skills like he did against Baylor last season. JUCOs will push him and keep an eye out for Adron Tennel, but Broyles gets my nod.

14.Mario Fannin (Auburn) – to me Fannin is the clearest beneficiary of Gus Malzahn taking over the Tiger/War Eagle/Plainsmen offense since he is a perfect fit for the motion-fly slot. Might be the closest thing to Percy Harvin this season, hopefully without the leg injuries. All they need is a QB…

15. Jeff Moturi (UTEP) – this is a big vote of confidence for the Mike Price system and very talented QB Trevor Vittatoe. I thought the same last season as Moturi ws the cat who hit paydirt in EVERY GAME of 2007, and I actually cut him in a 30-team dynasty league. Moturi is the better pure WR over Kris Adams, likely both will be productive but I lean to Moturi again. (Inside joke: Abadie, I still forgive you.)

16. Jamere Holland (Oregon) - another USC transfer who benefits from a growing Jeremiah Masoli at QB and the departure of numerous wideouts before spring. Chip Kelly takes over the Ducks but he has been the “COO” of the team for a couple years anyway – Ducks fly high again and ride the strong momentum of the last three games of 2008.

17. Antonio Brown (Central Michigan) – what would a fantasy college football article be without a Chippewa high on the list. Antonio Brown was a walk-on that produced from Day One, and now the junior is a great triple threat. QB Dan LeFevour’s senior season will provide him the opportunity to lock down one of the greatest college QB careers in history and Brown will be a big part.

18. Desmond Gee (MTSU) – that is Middle Tennessee State U. to those new to the site or the hobby. Dual threat Gee gets to benefit from OC Tony Franklin’s return to the Sun Belt where he had a great track record with Troy.

19. Michael Floyd (Notre Dame) – I might regret putting an Irish this high, but the stars seem to be lining up for Notre Dame offensively. Plus the schedule is a cupcake after Halloween and of course he has the Glorious Emu to throw him the ball.

20. Deonte Thompson (Florida) - Tim Tebow is supposed to throw the ball more in his senior season – Thompson looks like the physical leader of the pack. Have you seen the Gators OOC schedule? Make way for Charleston Southern, Troy and FIU.

21. T.Y. Hilton (FIU) – speaking of FIU, Hilton built a nice freshman season (Freshman All-American PR by Football Writers of America) for the Golden Panthers under former Purdue OC Bill Legg. Legg returns his spread offense with senior QB Paul McCallwhichs bodes well, but a brutal OOC (at Alabama, at Florida) could dampen his returns.

Here is the watch list of names that also caught my attention:

Raushaun Greer (COST)
Brandon Banks (Kansas State)
Julio Jones (Alabama)
AJ Green (Georgia)
Mike Williams (Syracuse)
Marcus Anderson (NMSU)
James Rodgers (Oregon State)
Juan Nunez (Western Michigan)
Jerrel Jernigan (Troy)
Emmanuel Sanders (SMU)

Rejus Benn (Illinois)
Dexter McCluster (Ole Miss)
Naaman Roosevelt (Buffalo)
Tim Brown (Rutgers)
Damaris Johnson (Tulsa) – ball is too spread out to make anyone a star
Adron Tennel (OU)
Lyle Leong (Texas Tech)
Stephen Williams (Toledo)
Philip “Saturday Night” Livas (Louisiana Tech)
Jeff Fuller (Texas A&M)
DeMaryius Thomas (Georgia Tech)
Malcolm Williams (Texas)
Marvin Jones (California)
Vidal Hazelton (Cincinatti)
and the freshman with the best chance for impact:

Andre Debose (Florida)
Eric Ward (Texas Tech)

Fantasy College Blitz

If you have been around this site for any length of time (esp. back to the pre-Blogger custom made website abomination of 2005) you know that we prefer deductive reasoning – have an opinion, then gather the data and crunch the numbers in order to determine if your opinion is worth any crap.

Graham Harrell leaves Texas Tech after three years as starting QB, but the program will live on.

Sometimes it is, sometimes it is not. That is life my friends.

One thing I have found to work very well is the “Dynasty Study” which looks at three variables that mean the most to fantasy college football and see which schools and/or coaches consistently produce top-shelf offensive output.

Total offensive TDs, Yards per play and yards per game are scraped from the NCAA website, each variable is ranked one through 120.

Lots of numbers and the offenses to watch in 2009 after the jump.

Last month I looked only at the 2008 data and today I am looking at the three-year period of 2006 through 2008 to get a bigger picture look at what schools you should focus on for your fantasy research. I created two different scores – RAW means that each year’s results have an equal weight in the calculation (simple average) and a WEIGHTED score that gives added gravity to recent years (exponential or weighted moving average). I thought it would also be interesting to see how much RAW and WEIGHTED differed and found it gave me a momentum measurement – I highlighted the positive momentum in green and the negative momentum in red.

fantasycollegeblitz-dynasties-study-2006-8

I hope you get some value on my quick notes on all 119 teams (Western Kentucky has yet to put in 3 years on probationary status). More snarky than enlightening but it should add some additional color to the black-and-white rankings.

Some observations:

• there was not a lot of variance in the names nor the two scores in the Top 20, unless you count Hawaii dropping to 62 after two straight seasons of Colt Brennan magic.
• SEC offenses performed awful in 2008 compared to recent history – of the 18 teams with nine points worse rating on the WEIGHTED score, 14 were BCS schools and 3 (Tennessee, South Carolina and Kentucky) were from the land of SEC speed.
• Non-BCS schools have been a key driver for strong stats – of the 14 teams that WEIGHTED scores were nine spots better, ten were from outside the power conferences. Arizona was the largest mover but lost QB Tuitama and WR Thomas to graduation, so do not expect the Wildcats to continue their offensive ascent in 2009 unless the Gronk goes on a James Casey-like stats binge.
• Nebraska quietly finishes in the Top 20 all three years which tells me two things – Shawn Watson is one of the better OCs in the land and the tradition of the Blackshirts defense is long gone.

Your comments would mean a lot if you can divine some other wisdom out of all the data – here is the link to the whole darn set going back to 2000 when Chris Weinke to Marvin Minnis was the rallying cry