College WRs: Who’s Over Rated And Who’s Under Rated In 2009?

August 20, 2009 By Leave a Comment

By Drew Smith

Fantasy College Blitz

The interesting thing about the wide receiver position in college football is; the large number of guys that come out of nowhere and the difficulty in maintaining or improving on great numbers from the previous season.  You can bet that there will be at least 10 guys who finish in the Top 20 WRs this year that aren’t even in the Top 50 this year…heck maybe not even in the Top 100.  It is difficult to know who the QB will build rapport with when dealing with new QBs or WRs and for situations when they are both returning it is often easy for a defensive to take the star receiver out of the game.

This means if you are drafting a WR early then you need to make sure that there is little changes in the situation from the previous year.

This also means that once you get passed the Top 30 or so receivers then it is time to get more aggressive with your picks.  Look for receivers in passing systems with plenty of uncertainty at the WR position like Texas Tech, North Texas, Hawaii, Oklahoma, BYU.  All of these schools are expected to air the ball out and someone has to be the go-to receivers.

Under-Rated

images College WRs: Whos Over Rated And Whos Under Rated In 2009?

Benn: Due for fantasy breakthrough?

Arrelious Benn – Illinois:  Everyone knows the talent that Benn possesses, but he has been a huge fantasy bust throughout his career.  The reason is lack of TDs throughout his career.  This year, the Illinois offense returns just about everyone and should be one of the tops in the Big Ten. Meaning, defenses won’t be able to key on Benn.

Everything I have read in the off-season points to Benn getting every opportunity to finally see the endzone. Reading in-between the lines has me believing, despite reading the same thing last year from Coach Zook.

Jeremy Williams – Tulane:  Williams is flying under the radar because his over-all stats from last year were only 27 catches for 437 yards and 5 TDs.  However, this was only in 4 ½ games as he missed the rest of the season with an injury.  Williams is a very talented WR playing in a conference that must use its little talent on defense trying to contain Andre Anderson.  If he can avoid injury then at least 1000 yards and 10 TDs is realistic numbers to expect for him.

Malcolm Williams – Texas:  I find it sort of interesting that everyone is predicting a monster year from Colt McCoy yet only Jordan Shipley is being drafted high from the offense.  Quann Crosby last year had 92 catches 1123 yards and 10 TDs but is now trying his luck in the NFL.

Let me put it this way, if you believe McCoy is going to be a finalist for the Heisman than a 2nd Texas WR is going to finish in the Top 25. The Longhorns have no running game and Jordan Shipley isn’t going to catch for 2000 yards, especially if they aren’t getting production from the #2 receiver.  Williams is extremely talented and I wouldn’t be completely shocked if he finishes the season with stats close to Shipley’s.

McKay Jacobson – BYU:  The Cougars get to break in a whole new group of receivers this year but with Max Hall slinging the ball around for 3750+ yards, someone has to be on the other end.  Jacobson is an unknown after fulfilling his missionary work but is the clear #1 receiver on the depth chart and all reports indicate he is dominating.While it can be scary drafting a player with no track record, Jacobson could easily give you Top 10 receiver production for a mid-round pick.

Naaman Roosevelt – Buffalo: Roosevelt had 104 catches for 1402 yards and 13 TDs last year yet is getting drafted in the mid-rounds.  The reason is that Buffalo is breaking in a new QB that most people just don’t have a lot of faith in.  I agree with the general consensus that his numbers are going to decline but I think people are over-thinking this and letting him fall too far.  104 catches is no fluke. That is a receiver who is running crisp routes, getting open and catching the ball.  Drew Wily was a good QB but he wasn’t the second coming of Brett Favre so don’t be afraid to draft Roosevelt if he starts to slide.

Over-Rated

6505886b069b1aa8ade01468a5b71064 226x300 College WRs: Whos Over Rated And Whos Under Rated In 2009?

Jones: More loved by the media than fantasy owners

Julio Jones – Alabama:  A consistent theme for over-rated players is the media hype and NFL draft projections.  Take a look at the top receivers of the draft over the past 10 years and you will see players who, more often than not, disappointed college fantasy owners.  Jones is a tremendous talent but now loses a solid, smart college QB John Parker Wilson and must deal with a noob throwing him the ball.  Also he busted on the scene as a true freshman which meant defensive coordinators had very little film on him.  Jones will continue to be loved by the media but fantasy owners will be left disappointed this year.

A.J. Green – Georgia: Green shares a lot in common with Jones in regards to being a freshman last year, highly talented and media hyped.  The Bulldogs lost two offensive weapons to the NFL in the Top 12 picks in Matthew Stafford and Knowshon Moreno. While I expect the offense to be better off than Alabama, it is still two players that defenses schemed against.  Now the big man on the offense is Green who will have a tougher time this year than he did last year.  Like Jones, I love the talent of Green but this isn’t the year I would expect to be fantasy studs.

Lyle Leong – Texas Tech:  I was all over Leong when I drafted him in the 10th round of the Athlon mock draft back in May. After-all, he was Taylor Potts go-to receiver in high school and expected to move into the starting lineup this year.  I still like Leong but he is starting to get too much fantasy hype and is getting drafted too high.  The Red Raiders have a bunch of players like Edward Britton, Alex Torres and Tramain Swindall to go along with Detron Lewis vying for passes and it is too unpredictable to use a high pick on Leong.  With Leong getting the hype, Torres has now become the sleeper to target.

Toren Dixon – Rice:  Dixon is getting a lot of love on draft day by people expecting the Owls to continue to be a fantasy super-team.  At this point it remains to be seen if they can continue momentum after losing Chase Clement, James Casey and Jarett Dillard plus offensive coordinator Tom Herman.  Dixon is a nice receiver but there are far too many question marks to assume he will be a 1000+ yard 8+ TD receiver. Many are assuming this based on where he has been getting drafted.

Jerrel Jernigan – Troy:  Jernigan is a someone I really do like so it is a little nitpicking to say he is over-rated but I think people are under-estimating the impact of Oklahoma transfer Josh Jarboe. Jernigan is still going to get his stats but I think Jarboe will prevent him from taking the next step.  Don’t be afraid to draft him, but I would think twice before reaching for him too high.

Others ‘sleepers’ to watch:

Alex Torres – Texas Tech

Armon Binns – Cincinnati

Darius Darks – Iowa State

Jamaal Jackson – North Texas

Dwight Jones – North Carolina

Royce Pollard – Hawaii

Kamar Aiken – UCF

Aldarius Johnson – Miami

Josh Jarboe – Troy

Phillip Livas – LaTech


Filed Under: Book Reviews, College Football Tagged With: , , , , , , ,

Fantasy College Football’s Top Value Defenses

July 14, 2009 By Leave a Comment

By Vince Mullins

Fantasy College Blitz

The most common complaint about new owners playing fantasy college football revolves around the number of teams one must cover, but I think that the exact opposite is true.

Call me a glass-half-full guy, but the opportunity to choose from 120 teams each week puts less pressure on you to nail down a starter at QB and at defense during your draft.

Most NFL fantasy leagues support 12 owners to choose from 32 teams means that if each team were to pick 2 QB or D then 3/4 of the supply is drafted.

If the same tactics apply to your college league, that leaves more the 3/4 of the nation available for you in the free agent pool. Even if you just play the Big Six conferences plus ND then a little less than 2/3 of the pool is still available.

Today I will focus on “value” defenses that should not require an early draft pick nor more than a dollar if your auction. I hesitate to call them all sleepers since there are some strong programs here, but common themes here are a simple September schedule (so some big schools here), strong coaching staff, low team expectations and/or returning studs.

In no particular order, my red dog blitz of defenses for Double-digit rounds of your draft…

USF Bulls – a pathetic September slate finishes up in Florida State but has two FCS teams and a visit to Western Kentucky. No matter who you put in those uni’s that should be enough, but when you add in a great DB tradition and the return of George Silvie and a great freshman/JUCO class this could be the unleashing of hell. In October they do have to face Cincy and West virginia, but both are at home on a short week. I am bullish on the Bulls again, which of course means for the third season in a row that they will disappoint with a surprising loss (like Louisville last season).

Clemson Tigers – a perennial underachieving team that cost another Bowden his job (one more to go) but it will be curious to see how they operate when few are watching. The early schedule is not easy (MTSU, @GT, BC, TCU) but I am willing to bank on the outrageously talented front seven led by tweener Ricky Sapp, 8 returning starters on D and new DC Kevin Steele coming in after an amazing two year run in Alabama. This was a Top 20 defense in the 2008 BlitzIndex, expect the same in 2009.

North Carolina State Wolfpack – first off, this might be the value of the 2009 draft at any position – Wolfpack lead the nation with EIGHT HOME GAMES, including the first four with two FCS teams. Someone forgot to tell Willie Young he could have been a first day NFL Draft pick so he is back to lead a very good D-line under 3rd year HC Tom O’Brien. Nine returning starters back and the experience should help a unit that allowed more then 30 ppg last year. I wondered aloud last season if the ACC was better than it seemed because of all the parity causing lots of losses all around, time to see if that hypothesis is valid.

Ohio Bobcats – My buddy Phil and I took a break from work and discussed which conference has the most head coaches with national titles. He was about to dismiss the MAC until I told him to wait a moment and think – he needed a hint to remember Frank Solich (Nebraska, 2001). Bobcats somehow avoid the usual September “rent-a-victim” road trips and the one very big school on the schedule is Tennessee whose offense likely remains putrid. No byes until November, all the main returners are back who scored 3 TDs and seven returning starters led by LB Noah Keller makes this an excellent value.

Nebraska Cornhuskers – a return to prominence for the Blackshirts? I think so as Bo Pelini and his bro Carl the DC should get some early national press for their hot start. Check the FAU-Arkansas State – @Virginia Tech – Louisiana September schedule. Huskers only return 6 but the one-man demolition crew named Ndamukong Suh anchors the line. There are fewer “legacy” programs with more damaged brand names than Nebraska, so grab some corn late and keep your eyes open for free agent defenses to hedge Big 12 schedule.

Rutgers Scarlet Knights – Phil Steele has the Big R facing the easiest schedule of the BCS conference teams. WIth the graduation of all the main players in an amazing offense will likely keep fantasy focus away from here, better for you as eight starters return on the other side of the ball. I mentioned in my Rutgers preview that I don’t care for the co-coordinator setup in Piscataway, but Howard, FIU and Texas Southern in the six weeks should lead to some big turnover numbers. See the preview also for my full schedule breakdown.

San Diego State Aztecs - while the Mayans get all the cultural focus these days, remember the Aztecs if you really wanna shock your fantasy friends. Fantasyheads know that Ball State’s Head Coach Brady Hoke upgraded his zip code to coach here, but less known is that former New Mexico Head Coach Rocky Long is now running the defense and he has skills. Long blitzes every down and was quickly hired after getting fired in Albuquerque. My quick count is that there are only four good offenses on the tilt. This is the epitome of the “Sleeper” Defense.


Filed Under: College Football Tagged With: , , , , , , ,

Best 21 College Running Backs In The Nation In 2009

June 18, 2009 By 10 Comments

By Drew Smith

Fantasy College Blitz

medium tulane05 222x300 Best 21 College Running Backs In The Nation In 2009

A good fantasy pick

1) Andre Anderson – Tulane: Anderson was off to a fantastic start last year before busting up his shoulder in the 7th game of the season against Rice. He had 854 and 7 scores through the first 6 games including two tough matchups against Alabama and East Carolina. Based on the talent of Anderson and the schedule he plays, the only thing preventing him from being the top fantasy back this season is whether or not his shoulder holds up. In a year with no clear cut #1 back, Anderson has too much upside to not be the first back off the board.2) LeGarrette Blount – Oregon : Blount is far more talented that Anderson and would probably run for 2500 yards playing for Tulane, but instead he is stuck behind a make-shift offensive line playing in the Pac-10. Blount also showed up out-of-shape in the spring, plays for a system that historically splits carries, and has some discipline concerns that prevent him from being the clear-cut #1 running back. With all of that said, he is arguably the most talented running back in the country coming off a season in which he ran for 1002 yards and 17 TDs on only 137 carries, which equates to a mind-boggling 7.3 ypc. While Oregon has shared carries in the past, there isn’t really a back-up RB that is worthy of stealing a ton of carries. The Duck’s offense will score 40+ points a game this year making Blount a lock for 20+ TDs this season. Yeah, there are risks… but all the backs this year have risks.

3) James Starks – Buffalo : There is two sides of the argument that could be made regarding Starks in 2009. One argument claims that with Drew Willy graduating, defenses will be able to focus on stopping the running game and thus making it difficult for Starks to repeat his 2008 season of almost 1700 yards combined with 17 total TD difficult. The other argument claims that Buffalo will need to rely on Starks even more and the MAC defenses aren’t good enough to stop him, even if they know he is coming as we saw with Kevin Smith a few years ago with UCF. I think the best approach is to draft him based on last year stats with the possibility of even better stats. Despite the loss Willy, the passing attack should still be good enough to keep defenses from stacking the line.

4) Jahvid Best – California : Best finished 2008 with 1580 rushing yards and 15 TDs with a ridiculous 8.1 ypc, and yet this was somewhat disappointing in my eyes. Best was in the doghouse early in the season followed by a minor injury in which he only got 21 total carries in a 3 game span. It is easy to over-project Best by saying in a full season he will run for 2000 yards. While he could if he got enough carries, the reality is that Best is a small back with a capable backup in Shane Vereen, so expect to see his carries be limited to around 200 as the coaching staff attempts to keep him healthy.

5) Jacquizz Rodgers – Oregon State : Rodgers burst on the scene as a true freshman running for 1253 yards and 11 TDs and should once again be one of the top backs in the country this season. Rodgers, like a lot of young backs with a heavy workload dealt with some nagging injuries, will need to shake that in order to take a step up to elite fantasy status.

6) Kendall Hunter – Oklahoma State : Hunter took advantage of the open space created by the high-powered spread offense of the Cowboys to run for 1555 yards and 16 TDs in 2008. With the offense returning most of its fire-power, Hunter is arguably one of the safest backs in the first two rounds.

7) Bryce Bell – Houston : I like Bell a lot in that offense but with games against Oklahoma State , Texas Tech and Mississippi State, I think his overall stats will be similar to last season. If you draft Bell and can get to Week 7 with a winning record then you are looking quite good since Bell should blow up in the second half of the season against C-USA what-a-be defenses.

icon cool Best 21 College Running Backs In The Nation In 2009 Damion Fletcher – USM: Fletcher had a disappointing season last year despite rushing for 1313 yards and 10 TDs because most people were expecting him to at least exceed his 2007 stats of 1586 yards and 15 TDs. Despite some off-season legal issues, I fully expect Fletcher to get back closer to his 2007 stats, if he can stay healthy.

9) Eugene Jarvis – Kent State : Jarvis had an injury-plagued season last year that limited his carries to only 165 for 801yards and 9 TDs. Jarvis is a little guy so injury is always a concern but he has proven to be able to carry the ball 250+ times in the past, and I expect him to get back to that level again this year.

10) John Clay – Wisconsin : Clay is a big talented running back who will be given every opportunity to be the next great Badger running back. Motivating issues and a nagging ankle injury could see him dropping in some leagues but makes for a great pick if you can get him as the 10th back off the board.

11) MiQuale Lewis – Ball State: Lewis had a magical season as he totaled over 2000 yards combined with 22 TDs, yet finds himself ranked as the 11th running back. The reason is that the loss of QB Nate Davis and head coach Brady Hoke has most people assuming Ball State will take a step back. Lewis makes for a risky pick inside the Top 8 RBs or so, but at this spot starts representing a good value compared to risk as the schedule is extremely weak for the Cardinals.

12) Harvey Unga – BYU: Unga has been a very consistent fantasy back over the last two years and is a player that could find himself in the Top 8 before the season ends once some question marks are answered. The Cougars have four new starters on the offensive line and a passing game that needs to find a new set of receivers. Regardless, for those folks who like to avoid risk, Unga in the 3rd round is the guy for you.

13) DeMarco Murray – Oklahoma : Some people are expecting a break-out season that will push him into the elite running back status but that is going to be difficult when splitting carries with Chris Brown. I expect to see a similar season as we saw in 2008 where he combined for 1397 yards and 18 TDs combined rushing/receiving.

14) Matt Asiata – Utah : A big-time sleeper at the running back position who is coming off a 707 yard and 12 TD season in 2008. Why the love? The Utes are expected to give most of the carries to Asiata this season, a TD machine, and should push 20 TDs this year. Utah has been a notorious running back-by-committee team so that is my only concern with Asiata, but all indications are that they do not plan on sharing carries and do not have any backs that seems ready to take carries.

15) Chris Brown – Oklahoma : The other half of the tandem in Norman that despite splitting carries finds himself in the Top 15 for running backs. Brown might not be the highlight reel, like Murray, but he is the guy that gets the rock inside the 10 making another 20 TD season likely.

16) C.J. Spiller – Clemson: This is a gamblers pick special since Spiller has never been a fantasy star, despite getting a ton of press as being one of the top backs in the country. The main reason was the presence of James Davis and a coach in Tommy Bowden that got off on seeing how cute he could get with the play-calling. Reading in-between the lines gives me the feeling that the Tigers are planning on getting Spiller the rock early and often- making him an excellent high-risk, high-return pick.

17) Jake Sharp – Kansas : Sharp is a blue-collar running back that will plug away for a 1000 yards combined. Not bad, but hardly anything to get excited about. However, the value comes with his TDs as the Jayhawks have a very potent offense and will give Sharp plenty of opportunity to score. Look for 1250+ combined yards with 15 TDs.

18) Brandon Minor – Michigan: Minor had an up and down season as he rode the bench for the first 6 games only to be a fantasy star for the next 3 games and then to finish the season banged-up. Minor will surely be a player that needs close attention over the next few months, but as of now he is slated to be the starting running back behind a monster offensive line in a fantasy friendly system for running backs.

19) Jonathan Dwyer – Georgia Tech: Dwyer is one of my favorite talents in college football but just plays in a system that splits the carries too much, which prevents fantasy super-stardom. In 2008 Dwyer carried the ball 200 times for 1395 yards and 12 TDs. I actually expect to see his carries drop down to the 175 range which, no matter how good he is, will limit his upside.

20) Toby Gerhart – Stanford: Gerhart ran for 1136 yards and 15 TDs last season and I expect to see a similar season from him again this year. The lack of receiving yards and splitting carries roughly 60/40 limits his upside.

21) Charles Scott – LSU: Scott is another running back who I am a big fan of talent-speaking, but is in a similar situation as Gerhart in that he doesn’t get receiving yards and has his carries limited as the Tigers want to be a passing team. Scott ran for 1174 yards and 18 TDs in 2008 and I expect him to put up similar stats again this year.


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21 College Football Wide Receivers To Look Out For In 2009

June 6, 2009 By 15 Comments

By Vince Mullins

College Fantasy Blitz

Another Dez for Heisman? Unlikely since wide receivers tend to not get the same DAC love of the runners and passers, but odd that the clear top two each share a unique name.

dez3 176x300 21 College Football Wide Receivers To Look Out For In 2009

Cowboy Dez Bryant (1) might do this 20 times in 2009 (Icon SMI).

Disclaimer: This list will change before your draft day. Accept it, embrace it. I welcome your comments and feedback but we got three months to kickoff and some of these guys don’t even shave so who knows what could happen over the summer.

Also – I figured I would throw in all the other names as I brainstormed before narrowing  it to 21. Consider it your watch list.

1. Dez Bryant (Oklahoma State) – without question the leading WR going in to 2009. Strong system ratings, returning star QB and RB and a conference that supports a lot of scoring. Did I mention physical skills unmatched by any DB in the country?

2. Dez Briscoe (Kansas) – another physical mismatch with a strong QB in Todd Reesing and a well-schooled system under the tutelage of Mark Mangino.

3. Aldrick Robinson (SMU) – my gut says Robinson will be more productive as Emmanuel Sanders who will be asked to play some defense in addition to his WR duties. Year Two of the June Jones run-and-shoot in Dallas should lift off in a CUSA schedule.

4. Detron Lewis (Texas Tech) the Red Raiders always have a wideout in the Top Ten, my pick for 2009 is Lewis. He will be pushed by the rangy Lyle Leong and new guys like Eric Ward, but Lewis is the best match for the history of 200+ pound wideouts that produce the most fantasy points in the Mike Leach Offense. History also supports the Z receiver (Wide Right) being the star and guess where Lewis is slated after playing slot right last year next to Crabtree? Stay tuned as position switches and fall practice take shape, but my early call is for Lewis.

5.DeAndre Brown (Soputhern Mississippi) – his reurn from that nasty knee injury in the bowl game is far ahead of schedule, showing Wolverine-like healing properties. With Larry Fedora at the helm and Austin Davis returning at QB, Brown should be a lock for the 100-1000-10 goal of a top ten WR.

6. Tyron Carrier (Houston) – came out of nowhere in his freshman season to lead Houston in reciving. With Heisman sleeper QB Case Keenum (and Daniel’s pre-season #1 QB) chucking it all over the lot Carrier

7. Jordan Shipley (Texas) I wonder if soph Malcolm WIlliams possesses a stronger wideout skill set, but senior Shipley’s friendship with QB Colt McCoy weighs heavily on McCoy’s confidence to throw the ball up for Shipley. The senior should be integral to Colt McCoy being a 2009 Heisman candidate.

8. Damian Williams (USC) - might have the best WR tools for the NFLers after Dez Bryant, but Williams is farther down the list due to the new QB situation. Granted, he did just fine with new QB Mark Sanchez in 2008 but either Aaron Corp or Matt Barkley have even fewer starts on their CV than Sanchez did. In fact, they have as many college starts at QB as I do…

9. Mackay Jacobsen (BYU) - you will not see Jacobsen this high on any other list so pay attention here. While on a Mormon mission can slow down an athlete (see Olson, Ben), Jacobsen steps back into BYU after his two-year stint in Japan. 2009 Top Tenner Austin Collie left early for the NFL and Jacobsen may be a better athlete so I really like his chances to rack up 100-1000-10.

10. Eric Decker (Minnesota) – the senior Decker spent the winter and spring as an integral part of the Golden Gopher’s Top 20 baseball team, but his “Hands of Gold” and quickness are huge assets for the football team also. Whether new QB Moses Alipate will compete this season with Adam Weber or not, Decker should continue to improve on the reception and Yardage numbers – TDs fell from 9 to 7 last year unfortunately.

11. Marshawn Gilyard (Cincinnati) – the best returning wide receiver in the Bearcat offense (Marcus Barnett spent the spring at CB) will have the best working relationship with QB Tony Pike, but if my projection is off then it will be at the expense of more passes being thrown to Vidal Hazelton, the transfer from USC that is petitioning for eligibility in 2009. Even if Hazelton plays, Gilyard could produce more at Cincy WR2 than most WR1.

12. Carlos Singleton (MEM) – Hear ye my official over-reach with a 6-6 plus wideout! Happens every season (see Vickers, BJ) Go back to 2005 and QB Arkelon Hall was an Elite 11 QB and ballyhooed as a savior of Washington State football.  2008 returned him to the football scene as the starter at Memphis and year two should be much better. Singleton is a 6-8 nightmare to cover whose stats suffered as Coach Tommy West chose to run the ball more in 2008, I expect a big recovery for Singleton.

13. Ryan Broyles (Oklahoma) – Sam Bradford will not have the luxury of eight seconds to throw this season since there is a rebuilding of the O-line, and to make matters worse his top three wideouts are gone. Superb TE Jermaine Gresham will man the middle and sophomore Broyles should display more of his sneaky fast skills like he did against Baylor last season. JUCOs will push him and keep an eye out for Adron Tennel, but Broyles gets my nod.

14.Mario Fannin (Auburn) – to me Fannin is the clearest beneficiary of Gus Malzahn taking over the Tiger/War Eagle/Plainsmen offense since he is a perfect fit for the motion-fly slot. Might be the closest thing to Percy Harvin this season, hopefully without the leg injuries. All they need is a QB…

15. Jeff Moturi (UTEP) – this is a big vote of confidence for the Mike Price system and very talented QB Trevor Vittatoe. I thought the same last season as Moturi ws the cat who hit paydirt in EVERY GAME of 2007, and I actually cut him in a 30-team dynasty league. Moturi is the better pure WR over Kris Adams, likely both will be productive but I lean to Moturi again. (Inside joke: Abadie, I still forgive you.)

16. Jamere Holland (Oregon) - another USC transfer who benefits from a growing Jeremiah Masoli at QB and the departure of numerous wideouts before spring. Chip Kelly takes over the Ducks but he has been the “COO” of the team for a couple years anyway – Ducks fly high again and ride the strong momentum of the last three games of 2008.

17. Antonio Brown (Central Michigan) – what would a fantasy college football article be without a Chippewa high on the list. Antonio Brown was a walk-on that produced from Day One, and now the junior is a great triple threat. QB Dan LeFevour’s senior season will provide him the opportunity to lock down one of the greatest college QB careers in history and Brown will be a big part.

18. Desmond Gee (MTSU) – that is Middle Tennessee State U. to those new to the site or the hobby. Dual threat Gee gets to benefit from OC Tony Franklin’s return to the Sun Belt where he had a great track record with Troy.

19. Michael Floyd (Notre Dame) – I might regret putting an Irish this high, but the stars seem to be lining up for Notre Dame offensively. Plus the schedule is a cupcake after Halloween and of course he has the Glorious Emu to throw him the ball.

20. Deonte Thompson (Florida) - Tim Tebow is supposed to throw the ball more in his senior season – Thompson looks like the physical leader of the pack. Have you seen the Gators OOC schedule? Make way for Charleston Southern, Troy and FIU.

21. T.Y. Hilton (FIU) – speaking of FIU, Hilton built a nice freshman season (Freshman All-American PR by Football Writers of America) for the Golden Panthers under former Purdue OC Bill Legg. Legg returns his spread offense with senior QB Paul McCallwhichs bodes well, but a brutal OOC (at Alabama, at Florida) could dampen his returns.

Here is the watch list of names that also caught my attention:

Raushaun Greer (COST)
Brandon Banks (Kansas State)
Julio Jones (Alabama)
AJ Green (Georgia)
Mike Williams (Syracuse)
Marcus Anderson (NMSU)
James Rodgers (Oregon State)
Juan Nunez (Western Michigan)
Jerrel Jernigan (Troy)
Emmanuel Sanders (SMU)

Rejus Benn (Illinois)
Dexter McCluster (Ole Miss)
Naaman Roosevelt (Buffalo)
Tim Brown (Rutgers)
Damaris Johnson (Tulsa) – ball is too spread out to make anyone a star
Adron Tennel (OU)
Lyle Leong (Texas Tech)
Stephen Williams (Toledo)
Philip “Saturday Night” Livas (Louisiana Tech)
Jeff Fuller (Texas A&M)
DeMaryius Thomas (Georgia Tech)
Malcolm Williams (Texas)
Marvin Jones (California)
Vidal Hazelton (Cincinatti)
and the freshman with the best chance for impact:

Andre Debose (Florida)
Eric Ward (Texas Tech)


Filed Under: College Football Tagged With: ,

Top Offenses In College Football

May 30, 2009 By Leave a Comment

By Vince Mullins

Fantasy College Blitz

If you have been around this site for any length of time (esp. back to the pre-Blogger custom made website abomination of 2005) you know that we prefer deductive reasoning – have an opinion, then gather the data and crunch the numbers in order to determine if your opinion is worth any crap.

harrell 4 cotton 170x300 Top Offenses In College Football

Graham Harrell leaves Texas Tech after three years as starting QB, but the program will live on.

Sometimes it is, sometimes it is not. That is life my friends.

One thing I have found to work very well is the “Dynasty Study” which looks at three variables that mean the most to fantasy college football and see which schools and/or coaches consistently produce top-shelf offensive output.

Total offensive TDs, Yards per play and yards per game are scraped from the NCAA website, each variable is ranked one through 120.

Lots of numbers and the offenses to watch in 2009 after the jump.

Last month I looked only at the 2008 data and today I am looking at the three-year period of 2006 through 2008 to get a bigger picture look at what schools you should focus on for your fantasy research. I created two different scores – RAW means that each year’s results have an equal weight in the calculation (simple average) and a WEIGHTED score that gives added gravity to recent years (exponential or weighted moving average). I thought it would also be interesting to see how much RAW and WEIGHTED differed and found it gave me a momentum measurement – I highlighted the positive momentum in green and the negative momentum in red.

fantasycollegeblitz-dynasties-study-2006-8

I hope you get some value on my quick notes on all 119 teams (Western Kentucky has yet to put in 3 years on probationary status). More snarky than enlightening but it should add some additional color to the black-and-white rankings.

Some observations:

  • there was not a lot of variance in the names nor the two scores in the Top 20, unless you count Hawaii dropping to 62 after two straight seasons of Colt Brennan magic.
  • SEC offenses performed awful in 2008 compared to recent history – of the 18 teams with nine points worse rating on the WEIGHTED score, 14 were BCS schools and 3 (Tennessee, South Carolina and Kentucky) were from the land of SEC speed.
  • Non-BCS schools have been a key driver for strong stats – of the 14 teams that WEIGHTED scores were nine spots better, ten were from outside the power conferences. Arizona was the largest mover but lost QB Tuitama and WR Thomas to graduation, so do not expect the Wildcats to continue their offensive ascent in 2009 unless the Gronk goes on a James Casey-like stats binge.
  • Nebraska quietly finishes in the Top 20 all three years which tells me two things – Shawn Watson is one of the better OCs in the land and the tradition of the Blackshirts defense is long gone.

Your comments would mean a lot if you can divine some other wisdom out of all the data – here is the link to the whole darn set going back to 2000 when Chris Weinke to Marvin Minnis was the rallying cry


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Who’s On The Hot Seat In College Football?

April 2, 2009 By 1 Comment

By Daniel Freer

Fantasy College Blitz

Every year, a number of college coaches find themselves in the perilous position of having “to win now”.   They are on “The Hot Seat”.

No, it is a little different than you…in a moment of stupor….mistaking the barbecue grill for the folding chair.

A slightly different Hot Seat

College coaches endure a lot of pressure to win, win now, win always, win…win…win.  Although most are well-compensated, it is still not an easy job.

080128 charlie weis vmed 4pwidec 237x300 Whos On The Hot Seat In College Football?

It's hot in here

However, their toil and suffering can be a positive for the fantasy player.  Coaches in trouble will try to open up their offenses, or, improve their defenses severalfold.  They deserve the fantasy attention, as well as the usual media scrutiny.

Which coaches are on The Hot Seat for 2009?  Here are the top candidates (Coaches listed in no particular order):

CHARLIE WEIS – Notre Dame: Weis (photo, above, thanks ESPN) had two lackluster seasons in a row, and needs for his talented recruits to start producing.  Weis may need a BCS Bowl invite to preserve his job.  He has the players in QB Jimmy Clausen and WR Golden Tate, so look for continued improved offense.  Also, with former OC Mike Haywood taking the head coaching job at Miami (Ohio), Weis named himself the OC…his first OC duties resulted in a huge Hawaii Bowl win with Clausen throwing 6 TDs.  Weis needs more 6 TD passing games in 2009.

STEVE KRAGTHORPE – Louisville: I am surprised that Kragthorpe has struggled so much at Louisville….especially after he turned around a moribund Tulsa program a few years earlier.  But Krags had an overall losing record at Louisville in his two seasons, and lost twice to Big East doormat Syracuse (ouch!).   Although I looked like a genius last year for not recommending Cardinals QB Hunter Cantwell for your fantasy team, it is with some remorse to see one of the most prolific offenses struggle at times last season.

GEORGE O’LEARY – UCF: Fresh off a CUSA championship and a 10-win season in 2007, UCF struggled last season as O’Leary’s Knights went from one of the top offenses in America to the worst of 2008.  Without star tailback (and 2007 Fantasy College Blitz Player of the Year) Kevin Smith, O’Leary’s UCF record stands at 4-19.  A bigger problem for O’Leary will be the ongoing lawsuit involving Erick Plancher, who died during a 2008 off-season workout that O’Leary was actively involved in.

RICH RODRIGUEZ – Michigan: RichRod is in trouble…after going 3-9 in his first season.  And, to add to the problems for Go Blue, a number of players have transferred out…including QB Steven Threet and RB Sam McGuffie.  Rodriguez better hope his new enrollees pick up the spread offense in a hurry, or else he will be “former Michigan coach”.  Another losing season will definitely not be tolerated in Ann Arbor.

MIKE SANFORD – UNLV: Granted, the overall talent has improved in Vegas since Sanford’s arrival, this could be a make-or-break year for Sanford….even though his contract was extended for three more seasons (however with a limited buy-out clause).  Sanford’s Rebels were one game away from bowl-eligibility in 2008 when they choked badly in a season-ending loss against Mountain West doormat San Diego State, and that does not sit well with the UNLV faithful.  Sanford has talent in WRs Phillip Payne and Ryan Wolfe…along with QBs Omar Clayton and Mike Clausen…which means anything short of a bowl game in 2009 (in a slightly weaker MWC) could be curtains for the Rebels head man.


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2009 BCS Championship Odds

January 31, 2009 By Leave a Comment

By Vince Mullins

Fantasy College Blitz

Courtesy of Sportsbook.com, The Top 21 for the College Football 2009 Odds for BCS Championship (entertainment and market sentiment purposes only).

  1. Oklahoma +350
  2. USC +400
  3. Florida +400
  4. Ohio St +700
  5. Texas +1000
  6. Oregon +2000
  7. Alabama +2000
  8. LSU +2000
  9. Virginia Tech +2500
  10. Penn St +3000
  11. Notre Dame +4000
  12. Florida St +5000
  13. Georgia +5000
  14. Miami FL +5000
  15. North Carolina +5000
  16. Oklahoma St +5000
  17. Georgia Tech +5000
  18. California +5000
  19. Texas Tech +6000
  20. Pittsburgh +6000
  21. Mississippi +6000

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College Players Heading To The NFL Draft

January 17, 2009 By Leave a Comment

By Drew Smith

Fantasy College Blitz

The NFL draft these days are all about the early entries as they tend to dominate the early rounds of the draft. The reason is simple…money! There is so much money given to rookies these days the top talents have little incentive to stay in school if projected to go in the first few rounds. Often there are other less obvious reasons that force a player to come out early which usually stems around family having financial problems or the player not cutting it in the classroom.

9526671 texas tech v rice1 College Players Heading To The NFL Draft

Ultimately it comes down to the question of can a player improve his draft status by staying another year. Michael Crabtree is going to be the same height, have the same vertical jump and run basically the same 40 this year as he will next year. His production can not get much better so it makes little sense to not come out.

Here is the list of the position players who currently have declared they are leaving school early…

QB

Nate Davis – Ball State

Josh Freeman – Kansas State

Mark Sanchez – USC

Matthew Stafford – Georgia

RB

Donald Brown – UConn

Glenn Coffee – Alabama

Shonn Green – Iowa

P.J. Hill – Wisconsin

LeSean McCoy – Pitt

Knowshon Moreno – Georgia

Chris Wells – Ohio State

WR

Kenny Britt – Rutgers

Jeremy Childs – Boise State

Austin Collie – BYU

Michael Crabtee – Texas Tech

Percy Harvin – Florida

Darrius Heyward-Bey – Maryland

Jeremy Maclin – Missouri

Hakeem Nicks – North Carolina

Kevin Ogletree – Virgina

TE

James Casey – Rice

Jared Cook – South Carolina

Andrew Davie – Arkansas


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BCS Championship Game

January 9, 2009 By Leave a Comment

By Vince Mullins

Fantasy College Blitz

Lets get this out of the way first – other bowls/exhibitions/county fairs need to have a thorough discussion about “motivation”. This game does not. No half assing by Ball State, no Cincinnati playing like they couldn’t believe they were in the Orange Bowl – Florida and Oklahoma have career-defining games to prepare for in tonight’s BCSMNC (BCS Mythical National Championship). 8pm on FOX (Hey Fox Booth, can you get the audio mix to sound somewhat professional tonight? The Fiesta Bowl was a production nightmare.)

BCS Championship GameI maintain there is one universal force in this game, a Tim Tebow force of nature unlike the sport has ever seen – some call him the best college football player ever.

Would it shock you if Tebow (right, Icon SMI) gets drafted #1 overall in the NFL, got involved in a financial education movement that solved the global economic crisis then marries Erin Andrews? Gator Chomp, indeed…

That may be fantasy, but reality is Tebow contributing a national Title, being the first sophomore to win the Heisman Trophy, and bringing much needed medical care to the Polynesian Islands – you want to tell him he cannot win another title? You want to try and knock him down, say he would be the fourth best in the Big 12?

Safest bet of the night? Over? No. Take the points? Nope. Mr. Franks really regretting he ever opened his mouth? YES.

Cool facts for the chick at the watch party, deep quantitative analysis and a man-crush for Jermaine Gresham after the jump…

Cool facts for the ladies at the watch party

Sam Bradford has a Heisman Trophy. Shiny new one. Only other time in all of history that two Heisman winners faced off in any game? 2005 Orange Bowl – USC QB Matt Leinart (’04) versus Oklahoma QB Jason White (’03). That ended badly for the Sooners.

Gator RB Jeff Demps just missed qualifying for sprinting in the Olympics – he is barely the fastest guy on the team. Gators say they have a dozen guys running under 4.6 40’s including 6-6 290 DE Carlos Dunlap. ESSSSSEEEEEEECCCCCCC SSSPPPPEEEEEEDDDDD!

Chicks dig crystal. I have been married twice and the beauty of an expertly cut glass bowl makes the ladies melt. Women will haves mouths agape at the wonder of the BCS Trophy. The creator of the Trophy, Wedgewood Waterford, declared bankruptcy as another victim of the global economic crisis is taken.

Bradford is 1/16 Cherokee, providing another reason for him to be not just a football hero but a cultural hero.

When Sooners have the ball

(#2 offense faces #5 defense -insert overused Irresistible Force vs. Immovable objects phrase here)

BCS Championship GameSuffice it to say that the Sooners have not seen a defense like this since they faced TCU, and the Gators have not seen an offense like this AT ALL. It is possible Ole Miss was the best offense they faced all season and you know how that went.

This game will be decided right here – can Oklahoma’s immense and athletic offensive line handle the ultra-athletic Gators defensive line? Sooners struggled with TCU, another team in the Top 5 of pass efficiency defense like UF – and by struggle I mean only score 35. EA Sports should have some fun modeling this group for next years game – how about we just nickname them the XBOX offense? It really boils down to tempo – only a couple teams ran more plays than the Sooners because they snap the ball with 20 seconds on the play clock, and the Gators again have never faced a tempo like this. The ability for the Florida coaches to recreate this tempo in the five weeks of practice will be the inflection point of tonight’s battle, and it will be apparent in the first quarter.

Oklahoma sophomore quarterback Sam BradfordQB Sam Bradford is clean – rarely touched based on a frenetic no-huddle attack that led the nation in 54 ppg and scored TDs on about 75% of their possessions according to Dr. Saturday. The Sooner offense will be affected by their own RB injury, but theirs is without any doubt – DeMarco Murray is out and that hurts the running game and the return game. Chris Brown (not the one dating Rihanna) is a 1k yard rusher also but is more a bruiser to a cruiser. And by bruiser I mean he gets the tough yards and scored 20TD this season.

The embarrassment of riches at receiver will stress the Gator defense more than anything, and there are few more lethal talents than TE/”Big Slot” Jermaine Gresham – no one has matched up with him properly all season long and none of the Gators back seven has the bulk even if they have the speed. SLB Brandon Hicks will line up on Gresham’s side a lot and must contain the deep threat. MLB Brandon Spikes is a first-team All-American whose name will be mentioned often tonight as I expect to see the Gators commit to loading up the LOS to stop the run and pressure Bradford. If not, WR Juaquin Iglesias will be a hero. A good sized edge here to the Sooners.

When Gators have the ball

(BlitzIndex #1 offense versus #50 Defense)

Florida Offensive coordinator Dan Mullen is staying on to call the shots despite already accepting the Head Coach job at Mississippi State – conspiracy theorist think his head will be elsewhere. I am confident that Mullen received the Urban Meyer stare when asked if he was committed so no worries here. Did you know that the Gators run the ball 63% of the time? That 2:1 ratio trends highly in this season’s best offenses (Ball State, Tulsa, Oregon, Oklahoma State)

Percy Harvin ankle injury is key – will he be 100%? Even he told the media he is 90%. First item that comes to mind – remember Michael Jordan hitting an NBA Finals-cllinching jumper while racked with flu? His 70% was better than most people’s 100%. Likely same with Harvin. One of my best college friends Mike McKnight dropped this line on me once – “He is more injury prone than Helen Keller.” I think at the time that applied to Barry Larkin, but it seems to apply to Harvin now. He strikes me as an athlete like David Boston who may have bulked up beyond his body’s structural capacity to support it – this is no suggestion to performance enhancing drugs, just an observation that the human body sometimes can’t take all that mass. Harvin is one of the most electric players ever and I wish him nothing but the best, I hope his people see that getting him to long term health may involve losing what many would perceive as good muscle weight.

To the digits – Sooners possess the my #50 defense with their best efficiency stat being #46th in the country in 5.1 yds/play allowed. Granted they faced one of the nation’s best schedules and the best offenses so it may look worse than reality. Sooners stand third the nation in sacks per game but are 99th in pass yards per game allowed – those two stats have a lot to do with opponents passing 54% of the time. The loss of LB Ryan Reynolds in October will hurt the squads ability to prowl the breadth of the field which is most important versus the Gators, but if you don’t know the name LB Keenan Clayton yet you will tonight as he is as athletic as anyone in the nation.

Assuming Harvin is not a peak efficiency, the Alabama game showed the Gators have speed and talent elsewhere like Chris Rainey and Jeff Demps (10.01 100m in high school), but Tebow showed that he still has the touch to put the team on his back. The Gator offense is 62nd in the country in passing yards per game (212) because they didn’t have to pass in any games except said SEC Championship. Expect WR Louis Murphy and TE Aaron Hernandez to be a big part of the show. I give a big edge to the Gators here.

What Vegas says

#2 ranked Gators opened 3.5-point faves and the total set at 73, it has moved to 5-points and 69.5. The market likes Gators 37-32 although i do not recall ever seeing a score like that.

What Mullins says

I see the Oklahoma offense scoring less than 50, question for me is can the Gators outscore them? As the matchups above show I see the Oklahoma defense doing little to slow down the Florida pace unless Harvin just cannot be effective. All my numbers say to go with Oklahoma, but I just cannot bring myself to vote against the Gators given their outrageous commitment to winning since the Ole Miss loss. I appreciate that nasty habit of underdogs winning the Title Games lately, but also the recent history of Oklahoma in bowl games is less than inspiring.

Florida 42 Oklahoma 34


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Orange Bowl Preview

December 31, 2008 By 1 Comment

By Daniel Freer

Fantasy College Blitz

Although it may not share the same marquee-value as the BCS National Championship Game that will be played in the same Dolphins Stadium one week later, the 2009 FedEx Orange Bowl (January 1st, 8:30 PM, Fox) will feature two conference champions who want to represent themselves, and their sometimes-maligned conferences, in a grand fashion before a national television audience.

The Virginia Tech Hokies and the Cincinnati Bearcats, both the somewhat-surprising champions of their conferences (ACC, Big East, respectively), meet in suburban Miami in what could be a close, low-scoring matchup.

The Orange Bowl could be the national-breakout game for some talented athletes from both teams, including Cincinnati WR Mardy Gilyard (photo, thanks IconSMI), who faces one of the best pass defenses in the land in Virginia Tech.

VIRGINIA TECH HOKIES (Head Coach:  Frank Beamer)

Usually, when discussing teams, the offense is mentioned first.  However, with the Hokies (9-4), it is best to talk about the defense and special teams, first

Although the Mullins BlitzIndex 2008 Prebowl BlitzIndex Worksheet – Google Docs lists the Hokies at 29th overall on defense, they dominate in their usually strong categories…especially turnovers and turnover margin.  Virginia Tech snagged 30 turnovers from opponents this season…six of them in interceptions by top CB Victor “Macho” Harris…two of those returned for TDs

Special teams are another area of strength for the Hokies, who annually block a number of kicks and punts…while returning opponents kicks and punts for TDs.  Hokies head man Frank Beamer coaches the special teams himself…one of the few head coaches that directly handle that area.

Offensively, the Hokies have a top RB in Darren Evans, who ran for over 1100 yards and 10 TDs in 2008.  His performance has been a boon to the Hokies, who have struggled to throw the football this season.

Not that QB Tyrod Taylor is a slouch at running the offense.  He was second on the team in rushing with nearly 700 yards and 6 TDs.  Taylor threw for under 900 yards in 2008, but his main weapons are his legs.  The top receiver for VT this season was WR Jarrett Boykin, who had 413 yards receiving and 2 TDs.

CINCINNATI BEARCATS  (Head Coach:  Brian Kelly)

With the Bearcats, the top two players to watch are at wide receiver.  WRs Mardy Gilyard (1118 yards, 7 TDs receiving) and Dominick Goodman (977 yards, 7 TDs receiving), possess big-play capability…and make it hard for opposing defenses to get away with double-covering one or the other.

Having two top-flight WRs has made it an easier transition for Bearcat QB Tony Pike, who took over the starting QB job when Dustin Grutza suffered a season-ending injury early in 2008.  Pike responded with over 2100 yards passing and 18 TD passes…and hit a number of big pass plays during the Bearcats championship run.

The UC backfield has been steady most of the season, led by RBs Jacob Ramsey (630 yards, 2 TDs) and John Goebel (581 yards, 7 TDs).   The ground game could be a factor if the Hokies are able to contain the Bearcats passing attack.

Although Virginia Tech gets more recognition for its defense, the Bearcats defenders were pretty good, too…in fact, finishing ahead of the Hokies in the Mullins BlitzIndex.

INTERESTING:

Virginia Tech has lost the last four BCS Bowls they have played in, including a loss in last season’s Orange Bowl game to Kansas.  The Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC), as a whole, have lost in their last 8 BCS Bowl appearances.

Cincinnati is making their first-ever BCS Bowl appearance, and their 10th overall bowl appearance in the program’s history.  Their Big East Conference brethren have fared much better in BCS Bowls than their ACC counterparts in recent years…Big East teams have won in their last three BCS Bowl games.

Both schools have met in a bowl game previously, in the 1947 Sun Bowl, won by Cincinnati.  It was the first-ever bowl game for both programs.

IN SUMMATION:

Look for a low-scoring game, and, one which could be won with a big play late in the game.  Especially watch the matchup between Cincinnati’s WR duo of Gilyard and Goodman, against the tough Virginia Tech secondary.  Whoever fares better between the two groups should win the game.  In an overall assessment of both teams, Cincinnati may have the slight advantage over Virginia Tech…especially if the offenses needs to make key plays late.

PREDICTION:

Cincinnati  20    Virginia Tech  16


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