STATS CORNER: PRICE AND HALAK COMPARED

By Chris Boersma

Two years ago, in response to an e-mail from someone at Faceoff-Factor about M-A Fleury’s poor start, I stated that:
There are very few 19-22 year old goal tenders (or players for that matter) in the league. For the most part players usually hit a peak at the age of 24 (players still get better each year until 30, but at a much slower rate). Most young goalies cannot compete with back-ups currently in the league so they’re relegated to the AHL until they are older. Here are a few of the young goalies I found. Pay attention to the development as opposed to comparing statistics (In Roy’s days 0.900 was great goaltending).goalies STATS CORNER: PRICE AND HALAK COMPAREDThings have changed a little since then with:Mason, Backstrom, Rask, Pavelec and Varlamov also taking the #1 (or close) spots on the roster. Some are doing well while others are getting by.

I write this because Price continues to receive substantial amount of criticism from the Montreal media. This isn’t new in Montreal, they’ve been complaining about Price from day one. Prior to the 2009 playoffs these comments were quite common: “Will somebody please tell Bob Gainey to put Halak in nets before we are swept by Boston”. I’m not sure if Montreal fans expects every goalie they draft to be the next Roy, but you cannot expect the same performance from a 22 year Price as 25 year old Price (or 24 year old Halak). Further to that here’s

the data for Price and Halak.price halak STATS CORNER: PRICE AND HALAK COMPAREDAs a result of management’s insistence, Price has 126 games experience vs. Halak’s 80.

One important part of developing a NHL player is experience. Halak and Price are at near equal performance levels (despite the age gap) and it would be wise to invest in the player you have for another 4 years rather than the one you’ll lose in two (or sooner). Giving games to Price is a wise choice because he is and will be your number one for a while. Halak does not want to be a number two and will move on as soon as he can. Why Montreal is holding onto two young goalies doesn’t make sense to me. They really should choose one trade the other and get an experienced goalie to help Carey out.

That said, there’s no question in my mind that Price will have a better career (assuming no injury issues) compared to Halak and it doesn’t matter if you choose to measure performance based on games played, save percentage or wins or whatever else. Sure, there are growing pains, but overall Carey Price is a great goalie. However, Halak’s done a little better so far.


Stats Corner: Top Performing NHL Goalies

By Chris Boersma; Hockey Numbers.
I have been compiling goaltending data since 2003-2004 and felt now was a good time to join it all together in one large database so I can produce statistics that you see below. The tables below include data from playoffs and regular season from 2003-2004 2005-2006 to 2008-2009 (excluding the 2003-2004 playoffs). The database contains over 300,000 shots in over 6000 games.

Top 10 – Total Shots Against.

N Name SQN SV S G EG D
1 Miikka Kiprusoff 0.907 0.912 9208 808 830 22
2 Roberto Luongo 0.917 0.919 8923 723 835 112
3 Martin Brodeur 0.912 0.918 8223 678 738 60
4 Ryan Miller 0.902 0.913 8201 717 705 -12
5 Henrik Lundqvist 0.916 0.916 8060 680 778 98
6 Tomas Vokoun 0.919 0.921 7513 597 709 112
7 Marc-andre Fleury 0.905 0.909 7505 682 688 6
8 Marty Turco 0.903 0.905 7500 713 707 -6
9 Cam Ward 0.909 0.905 7329 693 728 35
10 Tim Thomas 0.916 0.919 7167 580 665 85
Top 10 – Goals Prevented.
N Name SQN SV S G EG D
1 Tomas Vokoun 0.919 0.921 7513 597 709 112
2 Roberto Luongo 0.917 0.919 8923 723 835 112
3 Henrik Lundqvist 0.916 0.916 8060 680 778 98
4 Tim Thomas 0.916 0.919 7167 580 665 85
5 Cristobal Huet 0.916 0.919 5454 444 507 63
6 Martin Brodeur 0.912 0.918 8223 678 738 60
7 Dominik Hasek 0.918 0.915 3898 332 390 58
8 Jonas Hiller 0.927 0.926 2303 171 225 54
9 J.S. Giguere 0.910 0.913 6738 588 630 42
10 Niklas Backstrom 0.913 0.922 5030 391 431 40
Top 10 – Save Percentage (+3000 shots)
N Name SQN SV S G EG D
1 Niklas Backstrom 0.913 0.922 5030 391 431 40
2 Tomas Vokoun 0.919 0.921 7513 597 709 112
3 Cristobal Huet 0.916 0.919 5454 444 507 63
4 Roberto Luongo 0.917 0.919 8923 723 835 112
5 Tim Thomas 0.916 0.919 7167 580 665 85
6 Martin Brodeur 0.912 0.918 8223 678 738 60
7 Henrik Lundqvist 0.916 0.916 8060 680 778 98
8 Dominik Hasek 0.918 0.915 3898 332 390 58
9 Manny Fernandez 0.913 0.915 3557 304 334 30
10 Ilja Bryzgalov 0.905 0.914 5635 487 495 8
Top 10 – Shot Quality Neutral Save Percentage (+3000 shots)
N Name SQN SV S G EG D
1 Tomas Vokoun 0.919 0.921 7513 597 709 112
2 Dominik Hasek 0.918 0.915 3898 332 390 58
3 Roberto Luongo 0.917 0.919 8923 723 835 112
4 Cristobal Huet 0.916 0.919 5454 444 507 63
5 Henrik Lundqvist 0.916 0.916 8060 680 778 98
6 Tim Thomas 0.916 0.919 7167 580 665 85
7 Niklas Backstrom 0.913 0.922 5030 391 431 40
8 Manny Fernandez 0.913 0.915 3557 304 334 30
9 Martin Brodeur 0.912 0.918 8223 678 738 60
10 J.S. Giguere 0.910 0.913 6738 588 630 42

All the data for all goalies can be found here.
SQN – shot quality neutral save percentage – a save percentage that adjusts for the difficulty of the shots (If a goalie faces a lot of easier shots then their SQN will be lower than their save percentage. Similarly, if a goalie faces more difficult shots (rebounds, powerplay, etc.) they will have a higher SQN than their Save percentage
SV – Save percentage = 1-Goals/Shots
S – Shots against
G – Goals against
EG – Expected goals – The number of goals that should be scored against a goalie given how difficult the shot is to stop.
D = EG – G – Goals Prevent – how many goals a goalie stopped compared to how many you would expect him to stop.

Pic from custode.com