By Drew Smith
The interesting thing about the wide receiver position in college football is; the large number of guys that come out of nowhere and the difficulty in maintaining or improving on great numbers from the previous season. You can bet that there will be at least 10 guys who finish in the Top 20 WRs this year that aren’t even in the Top 50 this year…heck maybe not even in the Top 100. It is difficult to know who the QB will build rapport with when dealing with new QBs or WRs and for situations when they are both returning it is often easy for a defensive to take the star receiver out of the game.
This means if you are drafting a WR early then you need to make sure that there is little changes in the situation from the previous year.
This also means that once you get passed the Top 30 or so receivers then it is time to get more aggressive with your picks. Look for receivers in passing systems with plenty of uncertainty at the WR position like Texas Tech, North Texas, Hawaii, Oklahoma, BYU. All of these schools are expected to air the ball out and someone has to be the go-to receivers.
Under-Rated
Benn: Due for fantasy breakthrough?
Arrelious Benn – Illinois: Everyone knows the talent that Benn possesses, but he has been a huge fantasy bust throughout his career. The reason is lack of TDs throughout his career. This year, the Illinois offense returns just about everyone and should be one of the tops in the Big Ten. Meaning, defenses won’t be able to key on Benn.
Everything I have read in the off-season points to Benn getting every opportunity to finally see the endzone. Reading in-between the lines has me believing, despite reading the same thing last year from Coach Zook.
Jeremy Williams – Tulane: Williams is flying under the radar because his over-all stats from last year were only 27 catches for 437 yards and 5 TDs. However, this was only in 4 ½ games as he missed the rest of the season with an injury. Williams is a very talented WR playing in a conference that must use its little talent on defense trying to contain Andre Anderson. If he can avoid injury then at least 1000 yards and 10 TDs is realistic numbers to expect for him.
Malcolm Williams – Texas: I find it sort of interesting that everyone is predicting a monster year from Colt McCoy yet only Jordan Shipley is being drafted high from the offense. Quann Crosby last year had 92 catches 1123 yards and 10 TDs but is now trying his luck in the NFL.
Let me put it this way, if you believe McCoy is going to be a finalist for the Heisman than a 2nd Texas WR is going to finish in the Top 25. The Longhorns have no running game and Jordan Shipley isn’t going to catch for 2000 yards, especially if they aren’t getting production from the #2 receiver. Williams is extremely talented and I wouldn’t be completely shocked if he finishes the season with stats close to Shipley’s.
McKay Jacobson – BYU: The Cougars get to break in a whole new group of receivers this year but with Max Hall slinging the ball around for 3750+ yards, someone has to be on the other end. Jacobson is an unknown after fulfilling his missionary work but is the clear #1 receiver on the depth chart and all reports indicate he is dominating.While it can be scary drafting a player with no track record, Jacobson could easily give you Top 10 receiver production for a mid-round pick.
Naaman Roosevelt – Buffalo: Roosevelt had 104 catches for 1402 yards and 13 TDs last year yet is getting drafted in the mid-rounds. The reason is that Buffalo is breaking in a new QB that most people just don’t have a lot of faith in. I agree with the general consensus that his numbers are going to decline but I think people are over-thinking this and letting him fall too far. 104 catches is no fluke. That is a receiver who is running crisp routes, getting open and catching the ball. Drew Wily was a good QB but he wasn’t the second coming of Brett Favre so don’t be afraid to draft Roosevelt if he starts to slide.
Over-Rated
Jones: More loved by the media than fantasy owners
Julio Jones – Alabama: A consistent theme for over-rated players is the media hype and NFL draft projections. Take a look at the top receivers of the draft over the past 10 years and you will see players who, more often than not, disappointed college fantasy owners. Jones is a tremendous talent but now loses a solid, smart college QB John Parker Wilson and must deal with a noob throwing him the ball. Also he busted on the scene as a true freshman which meant defensive coordinators had very little film on him. Jones will continue to be loved by the media but fantasy owners will be left disappointed this year.
A.J. Green – Georgia: Green shares a lot in common with Jones in regards to being a freshman last year, highly talented and media hyped. The Bulldogs lost two offensive weapons to the NFL in the Top 12 picks in Matthew Stafford and Knowshon Moreno. While I expect the offense to be better off than Alabama, it is still two players that defenses schemed against. Now the big man on the offense is Green who will have a tougher time this year than he did last year. Like Jones, I love the talent of Green but this isn’t the year I would expect to be fantasy studs.
Lyle Leong – Texas Tech: I was all over Leong when I drafted him in the 10th round of the Athlon mock draft back in May. After-all, he was Taylor Potts go-to receiver in high school and expected to move into the starting lineup this year. I still like Leong but he is starting to get too much fantasy hype and is getting drafted too high. The Red Raiders have a bunch of players like Edward Britton, Alex Torres and Tramain Swindall to go along with Detron Lewis vying for passes and it is too unpredictable to use a high pick on Leong. With Leong getting the hype, Torres has now become the sleeper to target.
Toren Dixon – Rice: Dixon is getting a lot of love on draft day by people expecting the Owls to continue to be a fantasy super-team. At this point it remains to be seen if they can continue momentum after losing Chase Clement, James Casey and Jarett Dillard plus offensive coordinator Tom Herman. Dixon is a nice receiver but there are far too many question marks to assume he will be a 1000+ yard 8+ TD receiver. Many are assuming this based on where he has been getting drafted.
Jerrel Jernigan – Troy: Jernigan is a someone I really do like so it is a little nitpicking to say he is over-rated but I think people are under-estimating the impact of Oklahoma transfer Josh Jarboe. Jernigan is still going to get his stats but I think Jarboe will prevent him from taking the next step. Don’t be afraid to draft him, but I would think twice before reaching for him too high.
Others ‘sleepers’ to watch:
Alex Torres – Texas Tech
Armon Binns – Cincinnati
Darius Darks – Iowa State
Jamaal Jackson – North Texas
Dwight Jones – North Carolina
Royce Pollard – Hawaii
Kamar Aiken – UCF
Aldarius Johnson – Miami
Josh Jarboe – Troy
Phillip Livas – LaTech
